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Big Changes Ahead

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I think a couple of days ago I referred to our next cold front heading this way as a 30 degree front. The one heading our way sometime between 4-8PM on Saturday will be a good old fashioned fall cold front. Ahead of the front the winds will be howling, gusting to near 40 MPH from the S/SW on Saturday…behind the front the winds will be howling…gusting to 30 MPH from the NW. That means we’ve got a dramatic air mass change about to occur and it will be interesting to see how fast the temperatures end up dropping. Don’t be surprised if the temperature drops from the 60s to near 40 in 1-2 hours with wind chill factors hitting us hard.

The front should be nearby later SAT PM…here is the NAM position of the front @ 6PM SAT…

The model data indicates that we should be close to 65° by mid SAT afternoon…then drop to close to 35 by midnight and eventually end up in the upper 20s by SUN AM.

IF we can manage some breaks in the clouds on SAT, then highs may surge to near 70! There will be a lot of gulf moisture surging our way, but that moisture will be very shallow, in other words it won’t be that deep through the atmosphere, perhaps only a few thousand feet thick. With the winds cranking away, at the surface and above that layer of moisture and with the atmosphere being so dry immediately above that layer, there is the potential of breaks in the clouds. Regardless it will be a very mild, for mid November day. Sometimes there can be showers/storms associated with this type of frontal system but it doesn’t appear that there will be much instability in the atmosphere, there is little moisture convergence with the front itself and the atmosphere will be somewhat capped so the chances are not very good. There may be some activity down towards the Ozarks SAT evening…but for the metro the chances appear slim to me.

A pretty chilly, but not unusually cold day is heading this way on Sunday. Highs should only be in  middle 40s or so as the winds drop off during the day.

Once again we’re starting to dry out a bit…and while I’m not expecting any rain of significance through the weekend, the chances of rain will increase somewhat on Tuesday, associated with a shearing upper level storm that will be streaking towards the area. How far north we can get the rainfall is somewhat suspect, and it’s certainly possible that the bulk of the rainfall stays well to the south of the area…but it will be something to monitor over the weekend. This is the disturbance that I’m referring to…

I have a tough time imagining how we could get over 1/2″ out of this…and again it’s possible the amounts will be MUCH less than that!

There was a severe weather outbreak yesterday in the SE part of the country…including 16 reports of tornadoes that killed 6 people…the worst being in York, SC (3 dead)

If your not following the record cold in AK, it is impressive. Fairbanks avg low for this time of the year is -7°…this AM they tanked to -40°. Yesterday was also a day with numerous official and unofficial record lows up there as temperatures bottomed out @ -49° @ the Smith Lake branch of the U. of Alaska.

Finally NOAA has a writeup about the flooding that occurred along the MO River and the La Nina connection to it…

Have a great Thursday!

Joe

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