Strong(!) Cold Front Ahead

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The headline is catchy, and this will be, I think the 1st real fall front to catch everybody’s attention, but by the same token this will not be that unusual for the month of November, which typically can get a bit crazy with temperatures and especially temperature swings.

The front in question is moving through the upper Midwest and the Big Sky country now…temperatures in MT and Canada are pretty darn cold, but again this usually will happen, especially as we head towards later November. Take a look at some of the 1PM temperatures in that part of the country…the RED numbers are the temperatures…

There are some single digit temperatures up there in NW Montana, and that cold air will be draining through the upper midwest and by tomorrow PM pushing through the central plains states. The air will modify a bit as it heads our way, but when that front gets here you’ll notice it!

Ahead of the front and as the result of a tight pressure gradient between a strong area of high pressure out towards the Carolinas and a developing area of low pressure in the Rockies…the isobars (lines of equal pressure) are tightly packed in our area…this creates a large pressure change in a relatively small area…and hence the strong winds. KCI reported winds gusting to 53 MPH in the last hour.

You can see the leading edge of the colder airmass that is moving through the upper midwest…

To our south in TX now…moisture from the gulf, in the form of cloudcover is starting to move northwards…you can see the moisture on the afternoon satellite picture…

This moisture will be moving in later tonight and tomorrow, so a lot of clouds are expected. The moisture though is pretty shallow and with strong winds again tomorrow of 25-35MPH, the drier air above the moisture should be able to at least punch some holes in the clouds. The amount of sunshine tomorrow will determine the temperatures which may vary from the mid 60s to potentially the mid 70s. I’m right now in the 65-70° ballpark.

Then the front comes in and look at what will happen with this graphic that I showed during the NOON show today…this shows the temperatures for the weekend (computer model)

Again my feelings are 65-70° for Saturday and closer to 40° for Sunday. Once the front passes through later tomorrow afternoon/evening, I expect close to a 15° degree drop in 1 hour and almost a 25° drop in less than 3 hours (before midnight). It will be blustery and raw feeling out there…

There won’t be a lot of rainfall with this transition for the reasons I talked about yesterday. Anything that we get would be spotty and light…and the transition would give us less than .05″ of rainfall…and that might be way overstated.

Beyond this shot of cold air, which may last for about 24-36 hours, a storm that is now up towards the Gulf Of Alaska will offer our next chance of rainfall…sometime beginning later Monday night or Tuesday. The NAM model has been discounted, it wants to bring a bunch of rain our way, associated with a low level jet of moisture riding over the shallow cold airmass that moves in on Sunday. I see why it’s doing this, but it’s also by it’s lonesome compared to the other models. The GFS has been very consistent with this next feature and will be the model of preference for the forecast.

This next storm will probably have a bigger effect towards the south of the region…especially from the I-44 corridor to the I-40 corridor. It’s certainly something to be watched, but as I mentioned yesterday, tough, at this point, to imagine we get a lot of rainfall out of this. Perhaps 1/4″ is doable with some higher totals towards the S/SE of the metro.

After the storm moves through on Tuesday, we’re looking a more fabulous weather, with lighter winds heading towards the holiday. Right now Thanksgiving looks great with highs of 60-65° and for the big plaza lighting closer to 50-55° with a nice little breeze adding some bite to the air. Precip chances look almost nil for Thursday. There may be another quick hitting chance of rainfall though on Black Friday.

Tomorrow will be a busy day with the AM show starting @ 7AM…then from there I’m heading to the northland, to the Hy-Vee @ I-29 & 64th from 10-11 AM…Karli will be there from 11-12. We’ll be supporting the Salvation Army’s Season Pass program. Then from there I’m heading up to Cameron, MO for their Fall Parade starting @ 2PM and finally, depending on the wind situation I’m hoping to do a live shot from Independence, MO and helping to turn on the city lights in Independence Square between 5-6 PM. The issue with that last thing is that the strong winds may create a hazardous situation with our live remote vehicle…which, IF that’s the case means that we can’t do a live shot. I think the winds will be dropping off right before the front gets here, so we may be able to squeak it in before the front hits the area and the winds increase again. It’ll be a close one!

Finally this afternoon…we all continue to work hard at bringing the highest ratings that I can to FOX 4…however when we get our demo report, which is what TV stations use to sell advertising and hence make it’s money, I don’t think this type of viewer is accounted for.

I continue to work hard for all our canine viewers…gosh if I can do this with dogs…maybe I can get the feline viewers as well!

Joe

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