Rainfall Amounts/Mid Range Questions

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This “storm” performed about as expected from a rainfall standpoint. Metro amounts were around a 1/4″ to about .33″ which is what was predicted and the rain is slowly starting to wind down. Additional totals will be mainly under 1/10″ or so and it’s very possible we get to see some limited sunshine before the afternoon is done. Highs today should be in the 40s. In terms of some specific numbers here are some of the rain gauge totals. 1st from north of the river…then from the southside of the metro. Click on those images to make them larger…

Doppler indications pretty much confirm those numbers…there were some higher totals out there, but they avoided the metro as expected.

The forecast for the next several days is rather straightforward…with highs eventually getting to the 65-70° range on Thursday. There is a question about the potential warmth on Friday as another storm will be rapidly approaching the area from the SW. Should the rain hold off till late in the day or even towards the nighttime, there is potential for us to warm up again into the 60s despite an increase in cloudcover. Should things move along faster, highs will be in the 50s. I’m leaning towards the warmer ideas and the delayed rains with highs again into the 60s on Friday.

It gets rather chaotic afterwards however, I’m confident that it will get colder over the weekend, however the length of the next cold shot is a major question this AM and the model guidance is all over the place. In one camp you have the GFS which is very chilly from SAT-most of the following week. The EURO on the other hand has a quick hitting shot of cold air that lasts through Sunday then we quickly moderate on Monday. The Canadian is somewhat closer to the EURO however they then slowly chill us down again next week after a milder Monday. The ensemble runs of those models are sort of all over the place as well.

The cause of all this is the interaction of the FRI PM rainmaking storm and energy diving southwards out of Canada. The models are dealing with this interaction differently. The GFS closes off an upper level storm in the Mid-Mississippi Valley area and wallow that storm around for about 36 hours or so, allowing a progressively cold airmass to move in from Canada…the EURO moves this strong feature through and off to the east without really closing it off till it moves into the Mid-Atlantic states and then essentially takes the pattern to what we’ve seen for most of the Fall season afterwards. The Canadian is somewhat like the EURO model but handles the storm differently after it moves towards the eastern seaboard.

I’m not really confident about what the reality will be…it seems to me the GFS is certainly the most extreme solution, it would have snow falling through the eastern half of MO on Sunday with the potential for rain or snow around here into Monday. The EURO would, perhaps be more in line with how this fall has been consistently playing out thus far…everything moving along through the central part of the country at a rather rapid pace.

+++11AM Update…the newest GFS is now more in line with the EURO…meaning that we chill down over the weekend (40-45°), BRIEFLY warm-up on Monday then turn cold again for TUE-WED of next week…before we warm back up…this to me seems to make the most sense+++

We’ll figure that out a bit more tomorrow…IF your traveling from the Corn Belt states, (OH, IN, IL) on SUN or MON and coming west…pay attention to this storm, because you very well may have changing conditions on your travel.

Something else has happened in the past couple of days…this being tropical related. There is a major hurricane (very late in the season) down int he eastern Pacific ocean packing winds of 145 MPH! It’s name is Kenneth and it’s the strongest hurricane ever so late in the season on the Pacific side of things. That’s fascinating to me. This is what it looks like…nearly perfect from a satellite standpoint.

It’s future will eventually include a slow wind down over the next several days as it moves westwards away from any land areas.

That’s about it for today. Have a great rest of your Tuesday.


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