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One Storm Moves Away…Another Comes

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Good afternoon, at least we’re enjoying the mild air as highs today have soared to about 60° or so…just in case you’re curious the record high is 67° set back in 1933. So we’re within shouting distance of it which is never a bad thing for the month of December.

The rain is really winding down now, and while there may be a few showers associated with the front itself, things will be settling down over the next 4 days or so, until our next weather maker heads our way on Monday into Tuesday. More on that in a minute.

The next immediate change in the weather will be the cold front itself which will be moving our way this evening between 9PM and Midnight. That front will be sweeping the mild air away and ushering in more seasonable air to finish off the week. The front now is still off to the west of her, so if you have late afternoon/early evening plans, you can still get some outdoor stuff in!

For the next several days highs should be closer to mid December averages…

The weekend looks good…with moderating temperatures again. Highs should be int he 40s on Saturday and potentially in the 50s on Sunday depending on the amount of cloud cover that quickly increases as the day goes along.

That cloud cover will be generated by this next storm which is off the coast of BC. This storm like so many others for the last few weeks will be dropping down in the SW and stall, and spin around for a day or two before ejecting out.

The potential is there for this storm to eject out farther south that the others that have given us purely liquid precipitation. I’ve noticed this winter that there is a tendency for the models to have these thing eject out farther south that what actually occurs. For example the system that we’re dealing with today…on the GFS from last Thursday, it was forecasted to come out as a sizable upper level low moving through N MO. In reality it’s a shearing (weakening) upper disturbance moving through the Plains states. Right now the EURO model, especially has this thing taking a nice track for a rain to wet snow event for us late MON night into TUE AM. It even would suggest the potential for some sort of accumulation (minor) that would probably melt on Tuesday and while it’s probably worth a mention of the chance of a rain>snow changeover, I’m not overly excited at this point. Probably won’t to worked up about the potential until Sunday night. Again it would have to take a perfect track for this to even happen and if the models have a good track 5-6 days out, that usually is the kiss of death to what will eventually happen. What’s interesting is that this may turn into another TX/OK Panhandle snow event. Amarillo has had close to 5″ of snow this season…by Tuesday it’s possible they may have more snow than many northern cities that should have had a lot more snow by now.

It blows me away that Alpena, MI has had 2/10ths of 1″ of snowfall this season…some 16″ below average. For them this is the lowest total ever recorded for so late in the early winter (if that makes sense). Gaylord, MI, about 1 hour south of Mackinaw Is. is running some 16″ below average. It may really cripple their holiday economy because they rely on snowmobiler’s and winter sport activities. There is a great write-up and the stats and the whys from the NWS on their web-site but here is an excerpt on the why part…

“The main jet stream is west-to-east across Canada, but the upper-level flow is split over North America. The portion digging into the Desert Southwest, and up into the Ohio Valley, directs mild and moist air northward. This was the same jet stream configuration that brought excessive rainfall, and extensive river flooding, to the Missouri, Mississippi, and Ohio Rivers last winter and spring. This setup is clearly in-place again. The primary jet, over Canada, essentially “locks” the bitter arctic cold over Alaska, northern Canada, and Greenland. For northern Michigan to experience cold temperatures, for snow, that jet stream needs to buckle up toward Alaska and then downward deep into the eastern U.S. The jet stream will not stay in this configuration for the entire winter; it does vary and this will allow for opportunities for snow to fall and accumulate. However, averaged over the upcoming winter, this configuration will probably be in-place more times than not.”

In case you haven’t heard, and you probably haven’t, that’s why I’m here right, there have been some really intense storms in parts of N Europe, with another doozy heading their way. Yesterday there were reports of winds in excess of 100 MPH and waves off the coast of N Scotland and Ireland of almost 70 ft…that’s 7 stories. Obviously that means it’s time to go surfing…take a look and watch the end closely…

Ireland Wave Action

The storm responsible is a 953 mb bomb…that’s more intense than some of the hurricanes we’ve seen over the years…28.14″

Pretty impressive! That 971 mb storm in the Atlantic will weaken somewhat but still be a big storm in the Baltics area.

Joe

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