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Monday’s Snow Chances

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This blog will be somewhat shorter than my usual ramblings as other commitments are pressing today, If I get a chance I may try to update things later this afternoon, closer to 4PM IF I can.

Several things are becoming apparent this AM…1) Clouds are going to rule the day and highs will struggle to get to 40° for KC this afternoon. There have been a few flakes as well…2) The Canadian/Arctic air heading this way means business and will be colder than thought yesterday to a minor degree and may end up being the coldest airmass of the entire winter as lows on SAT/SUN AM may drop to near 5° & highs struggle to get to 30° from tomorrow on…3) Late Sunday night into MON early PM looks more and more interesting. I’m not really concerned at this point about the type of precipitation, as I think the bulk of this will potentially be snow, assuming things pan out as expected (and again remember that this is still 4+ days away). There is an increasing chance of accumulations as talked about yesterday and there is an increasing chance of AM MON rush hour problems. This will not be a huge storm, but more of a nuisance type scenario, although it potentially may be the “biggest” winter storm of the “Winter That Isn’t”…4) What ever happens on Monday may end up as some very liquid precip, but it should be inconsequential.

There are obviously many things that can go wrong with this playout of events on Monday. Should the wave come in farther north, there may be some sort of elevated warm layer of air that creates some wintry mix. I’m not in that camp at this point. Also the wave may come out in pieces which is more possible, creating more of a disorganized area of snowfall and more inconsistent accumulations. Again this part of things is possible.

The GFS model and the EURO model certainly have more precip makers on the way for the last half of FEB, so it finally looks like winter may start acting like winter, the question would be IF there will be enough cold air around to create snowy forecasts.

Finally here is the satellite picture for the midwest today…notice all the clouds!

Here are the 5K foot temperatures for the colder airmass that is moving in tomorrow…pretty impressive. IF there would be snow on the ground, like last winter and IF this same airmass was moving in, we’d be talking about lows over the weekend of 10-20 BELOW zero! For time reference the UL image is 6PM tonight-the UR image is 6AM tomorrow-the LL image is 6PM tomorrow and the LR image is 6AM SAT. Those colors are temperatures in degrees C. 0°C=32°F…-10°C=14°F… -20°C=-4°F

Joe

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