Good Thing This Wasn’t A Snowstorm!

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4:30 PM Update: Over the last hour a whole little disturbance as moved up into SE KS and is moving right towards areas from KS southwestwards. A large area of decent rainfall is moving along the I-35 corridor and will be moving into the metro just in time for the evening rush hour. It has broken up a bit though in the last 30 minutes. Some areas may get an additional 1/4″ of rain towards the SW of KC. .Heaviest rain should be towards Bates/Henry/Pettis Co on MO side. Also Coffey/Franklin counties on KS side. Rainfall rates are 1/10-1/4″ per hour with the batch moving northeastwards.

Also of note is a cold front that is moving through the metro as I type. The winds have switched towards the north and the temperatures have dropped about 5° in the past couple of hours.

+++++++

Usually I say that when we get a bunch of rainfall, and using the 10:1 conversion (10″ of snow=1″ of rainfall) that would mean a ton of snow. With this particular storm though, odds are yesterday’s snow forecast would’ve been a plain disaster and the phones and emails would not be pleasant today. For as nails as the forecast was the other day with that 2″ snow, this would not have been good. Odds are most forecasts last night would’ve been talking about 3-6″ or maybe even 4-8″ of snow from the NW to the SE considering the modeling was cranking out some pretty healthy precip totals.

Here is a look at yesterday’s NAM forecast for the region from the afternoon run.

We would’ve been sweating that IF it were cold through the atmosphere as far as snow goes. That area of heaviest precipitation down towards Warrensburg would equate to a nice 6-12″ snowstorm there.

In reality, rainfall amounts today have only verified in to a few hundredths of an inch upwards of a 1/10″. There is a new batch of showers spreading our way from the SW that should provide some additional rainfall this afternoon. To say the storm has underperformed my expectations would be understating things. I thought the potential of 1/2″+ of rainfall would be pretty good today. In reality we should fall way short of that projection.

Although IF this would’ve been a snow scenario, this batch of precipitation coming from the SW as of this typing would’ve gotten us right before rush hour this evening, and that would’ve been a mess.

The storm looks decent on the maps, and it’s satellite presentation isn’t too bad either. Take a look at the loops of the visible before 6PM tonight. but it just has never really gotten it’s act together well.

Meanwhile in TX there is a nice little dry line moving through the central part of the state. As a matter of fact, IF this was farther along into the spring season, we’d probably be looking at a nice little severe weather outbreak across the southern plains and closer to home as well.

Notice dewpoints in Central/West Texas are down into the 20s (the dewpoints are in green-Temperatures are in red). It is interesting to me that in the last several weeks the gulf moisture really doesn’t seem to be having to much of a problem getting into the southern plains area especially. Also noteworthy is that TX and OK are getting their much needed moisture after such a terrible drought. This should lead, in the springtime, to an increase in transpiration (loss of water vapor from plants, trees, grasses etc). This may help, down the road, to sharpening up future drylines and with the right conditions, perhaps promote more severe weather, especially in the southern plains and the deep south. Obviously that’s just speculation on my part. Regardless it’ll be interesting to watch.

Not much active weather at this point is expected through the weekend, and actually THU and FRI look very nice with highs near 50° and well into the 50s on TGIF. There will be another storm over the weekend, but that will be well south of the region it appears providing more drought relief for eastern TX and other parts of the deep south.

Speaking of the south, the SE part of the country is really getting dry again. Here is the drought monitor report from last week. The new one should come out any day now.

Since I was talking about the southern plains drought, here is some information about them as well.

Fascinating to see that their “D4-Exceptional drought) land area has gone from 41% 3 months ago down to 12% now. West Texas is still having some issues for sure though, despite a great last couple of months for precipitation.

Have a great rest of the day, and I’ll write again tomorrow!

Joe

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