Cold Front Means A Big Drop

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A lot to blog about including something from a meteorological aspect and something from an astronomical standpoint. We’ll get to the weather part first since I know that stuff the most (stop laughing).

A strong cold front is heading this way and as I type this blog the temperature has dropped to 45° in Concordia and Beatrice. The winds have shifted towards the north at about 20+ MPH behind the front and the cold air is streaming into the Central Plains now. Ahead of the front we’re still getting those gusty south winds (to around 30-35 MPH) and while better than yesterday (45-50 MPH) it’s still blowing pretty good out there. Here is the 2PM surface map showing the cold front just to our west and heading this way…it should arrive between 5-9PM tonight and the temperatures will drop almost 20° in about 1 hours time!

There will likely be some shower activity with maybe a few rumbles of thunder along and behind the front. Eventually by tomorrow AM we should see lows in the lower 30s or so. The precip should be over with well before we get that cold.

From there it get’s tricky as I’ve talked about for the past few days. The front is just one part of the evolution of the change. The second part of this change is an upper level storm that will be cutting off and meandering around for awhile across the desert SW. What that storm does, in terms of kicking out and heading through the Plains states is going to be the key to the weekend forecast. When and where it kicks out is still a bit up in the air. The NAM model is the fastest in kicking this out, bringing rain into the region as early as SAT midday. The GFS model is bringing the storm into the region later SAT night and into SUN. The Canadian model holds this off this Monday. The EURO also brings this into the region on SUN.

What’s getting more interesting to me is the potential for something “weird” to happen on Sunday with the Upper Level Low nearby. Remember this ULL represents a cold pocket of air aloft, and IF the models are close to being right there would be the potential for weird low topped t/storms to develop. The thing to keep in mind is the freezing level will be rather low, probably close to about 8000 feet. So IF there can be some convective activity, there can be some hail associated with it. Again this is all dependent on the path and future of the ULL itself. This could be west of here or SW of here depending on where the pocket of cold air ends up.

Here is the map for later SUN PM…showing the core of the storm nearby.

So we’ll be tracking this over the next couple of days.

Here is some climate data for you as we continue to crunch the numbers for the “Winter That Isn’t” Here is a look at the nationwide temperatures for the winter.

Notice that for the state of MO, we enjoyed the 3rd warmest winter in our weather history. On the KS side it was the 14th warmest winter in the states history!

There are some links that I want pass along to you. The 1st is in response to the question that I’m getting a lot of, and that’s the issue of whether or not this severe weather season will be bad this year considering the amount of warm air that we’ve enjoyed in the “Winter That Isn’t.”

Next is that you may have heard about a lot of activity on the surface of the sun.

http://bcove.me/236ad1vy

Pretty interesting stuff. As a matter of fact last night the northern reaches of MI got to enjoy a nice display of the Northern Lights.

This CME or Coronal Mass Ejection will be bombarding the upper reaches of the atmosphere for the remainder of the day. Unfortunately even IF the northern lights were to be visible this far southwards, clouds tonight will hinder us from seeing them. The folks from NOAA have put together this animation showing the flow of the CME towards earth.

As of the 4PM hour, showers are breaking out across NE KS, nothing too serious though.

Joe

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