New Day…Same Rain

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It’s my Friday so this blog will again be brief, but then again I really have blogged this storm to death already…it is interesting though that this thing will be affecting us for a 5 day total with rain chances continuing through Friday. I still expected the activity to become more scattered THU/FRI.

If you remember last weekend I speculated about the potential of some convection developing THU or FRI that may produce some hail…that is still possible but dependent on us seeing some significant breaks in the cloudcover. Since the ULL (Upper Level Low) will be nudging closer to our region, the atmosphere aloft will be getting colder and colder. Here is a better idea of what I’m talking about…right now the temperature of the freezing level, or what altitude the temperature aloft drops below freezing is around 9K feet. Now if you went down towards Oklahoma City the freezing level would come down to about 6K feet and if you get towards the heart of the ULL near and east of Midland, TX the freezing level drops to about 3K feet. So what will happen over the next couple of days is the core of the colder mid-level temperatures will be coming towards our region. Let me show you this by looking at the model forecast maps…your now going even higher in elevation towards about 18K feet so that we can track the low better…

Notice how the core of the storm passes very close to the KC region on Friday before moving off towards the east of the area on Saturday. As the core get’s closer the freezing altitude will continue to drop. With that said though, the only way this comes together is getting some instability thanks to sunshine. That may very well happen, IF the storm starts sucking in some drier air into it’s circulation, which some of the model data is indication. The problem with that scenario is that the models do a very poor job in these situations, progging dry air entrainments, Then again the models are really struggling portraying the rain that’s out there now for that matter. Regardless of all this, it’s still in the back of my mind for the next couple of days. The bottom line is that IF you see decent sunshine, don’t be surprised to see additional storm development THU/FRI.

Everything still looks great for the weekend.

Here is your random stat for the day. Chicago will have the 8th record high in a row today…mid 80’s as a matter of fact making today the 6th day with highs in the 80s. How many days has Las Vegas hit 80 degrees this year? Well here is a graphic that answers that question.

The upper Midwest continues to break records for heat and earliest warmth ever recorded. It really is amazing to see what’s been happening up there and there is actually a small chance that today there could be a stray 90 degree high up there, which may be the earliest 90 degree weather for the state of MI. There is some great information about temperatures and moisture extremes from the NWS in Minneapolis.

All this warm weather has lead to rapid snow melt across parts of upper MI…Marquette, MI melted 44″ of snow in 13 days (3/5-18). Not surprisingly they are reporting no snow cover right now, shocking considering the temperature is 62 as of 7AM.

Finally on the AM show today we had a story about a women who was texting and waling on a pier along Lake MI…well you know how this ended up, she plopped in the water. Normally that would be a bad thing in March and she was rescued so all is well…but an interesting weather note to this…Lake MI is warmer now that it has ever been for this time of the year. As a matter of fact there is a buoy in the south-central part of the lake reporting 47 degrees now…that’s the normal temperature for late May/Early June

There you go…have a great Wednesday!

Joe

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