Just How Hot Will It Get?

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So yesterday I wrote about how weird these last couple of months have been around here from a temperature standpoint. at that point March being warmer on average than April. Right now the two months are neck and neck with this April having a slight lead again and will increase that lead then pull back over the weekend. Our record setting March of 2012 had an average temperature of 57.2°. April of 2012 at this point has an average temperature of 57.5°.

I wondered in my warped mind whether or not March had EVER been warmer than April in the past and the answer is yes. Four different years as a matter of fact. Back in 1907 and 1918 March beat April out for warmth. In 1907 it was 52.1°/47.7° and in 1918 it was 50.8°/49.3°. It also happened in 1910 as well and finally in 2007 (52.6°/51.9°). We’ll see if we can tack another one on this year, because while it will be toasty for a few days, the last several days of the month are going to be chilly again and gardeners may again want to start paying close attention to the forecast because there is an increasing chance of seeing more frost as early as Sunday AM and/or Monday AM…and there may be temperatures in some areas dropping into the 20s if the current models forecasts are close to reality.

That’s jumping ahead of myself. Today the winds are starting to already pick up, and after a low of 44° this AM, this could be one of those days where the temperatures soar some 40°+ degrees before the day is done. I was all geeked out yesterday because I was talking to some potential clients of the station and telling them about my passion for weather and why I love this part of the country. The thought of going from frost one AM to A/C weather the next afternoon is pretty neat to me and while the dewpoints today will be manageable, I still think you’ll want the A/C on later this afternoon as highs surge to near 85°.

Tomorrow is the day that we’ll need to watch for record highs. The current record is 91° set back in 1989 and I’m thinking a run towards 90° reasonable for tomorrow.

Then the forecast gets complicated as a front will try to make it into the KC area. Where exactly the front ends up is still a bit of a question. So Thursday’s highs could be anywhere from the 70s to well into the 80s again. The humidity will be massively on the increase tomorrow and it will feel tropical by tomorrow afternoon. Normally we’d be all concerned about t/storms with this situation, however aloft there is going to be a very warm layer of air in the mid-part of the atmosphere (the cap) and this should limit any convection.

Sometime later THU night or FRI will need to be watched for convection, and FRI in particular needs to be watched because there will be a surface low nearby and there will also be a battle of the airmasses taking shape across the region as the 6Z NAM shows, valid for 1PM FRI afternoon. The “cap” is gone so the potential of storms/severe weather is there for someone in the viewing area, and with a surface low in the vicinity, and very unstable air south of US 50…the area needs to be watched carefully. The thing that would argue against anything significant is that aloft there will be a decent wave passing to our north so as everything comes together in the atmosphere below, the atmosphere aloft in the afternoon will NOT be nearly as conducive to storms. Should the timing aloft change, then we may have some bigger issues. Something to certainly watch for.

Here is the map that I referred to above.

After that surface low passes by, the winds turn towards the north and some rather chilly air moves into the entire region. Highs on SAT may struggle again in the 50s and that will set the stage for the potential of frost/light freezes SUN/MON AM depending on the cloud cover situation.

++++Update @ 10AM++++

The latest NAM has the cooler air winning the battle THU into FRI…as a result, THU would be in the 60s-70s and it’s possible FRI is only in the 50s. The risk of severe weather would be minimal on FRI with the surface low on the latest NAM forecasted to be down in OK/AR as opposed to near the I-70 corridor.

++++++++++++++++++++

By the way, that big storm back east in WV up through W NY produced some isolated pockets if 1-2 FEET of snowfall. There is a ski area out there that will be opening for today for one day so that the folks could enjoy some skiing and snowboarding. As this was happening there were dozens of record highs out west. Las Vegas/Phoenix and Salt Lake City among some of the record highs out west.

Finally last night, IF you were away from the city lights, you may have noticed a strange “glow” on the horizon. There was a somewhat rare display of the northern lights visible as far south of the I-70 corridor. I saw the glow but wasn’t far enough away from the light pollution to see anything. There are some pics running around from the Lawrence area of a greenish hue, with some folks down this way reporting a reddish tinge as well.

NASA today released this unrelated video. Not so sure I like the music but the video was pretty cool.

Have a great Tuesday!

Joe

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