A Much Wetter AM
New storms are firing now along the real cold front and a new Severe T/storm Watch is now in effect for the region through 11PM.
Well I was probably due for a forecast bust, and we’ve now moved into that territory. As you know I tell you when we do well in a forecast on occasion and I tell you when I more or less blow it. It’s raining, that was expected, some are getting a bunch of rain…that too was expected, some have gotten some hail, that too was expected, but in all honesty all this was expected about 3-6 hours later than it occurred. That’s where the bust is coming from and I’m not happy about it.
I was tracking an outflow boundary moving towards the region this AM. There were storms/showers along that boundary up across NW MO as it was sinking our way. The activity though was rapidly weakening which is typical for these weak boundaries moving our way in the AM hours. Then at about 8AM or so, some small new cells started to develop NE of the metro. Those cells backbuilt right into the KCK area and then slowly built and/or moved into the metro and that is what we’re dealing with S of this writing. Now it appears that a small wave has developed in the atmosphere near downtown and is moving NNE. That may help to end the storms from the SW to the NE over the next couple of hours. Here are some of the rainfall totals, some areas are approaching 2-3″ according to doppler estimates.
It does look like the heaviest rain is ending for the time being from I-70 southwards as the wave lifts to the NE. The yellows represent 1-2″ and the Reds in NW Ray county are representative of aver 3-4″ of rainfall with this.
Now what about the rest of the afternoon. Well I anticipate seeing clearing skies during the middle of the afternoon hours. The satellite picture is showing clear weather across NW MO now and the wave that is moving through should generate some downward moving air or subsidence and that should allow the remnant clouds to break.
That means we’ll start to warm up, however additional storm development through 4-5PM may be somewhat of a question as for the metro area since we’ll be more stable since things in the atmosphere have been worked over closer to KC. The REAL cold front is still located towards the NW of the metro, closer to a Des Moines-Falls City-Wichita line and at best will crawl through the area later today and tonight. That’s when we should see renewed activity with the potential for all of this to play out again, although there may be a little more movement to the areas of storms that develop and less training.
What’s interesting is that aloft there are some sign of us capping back up again behind this wave as it exits there area. Here is a look at the cap…anywhere you see that 8-10° dashed line…with temperatures below 80°-85° that represents the cap.
Notice with the SW winds, the warmer mid-level air air again overspread the area as this wave moves away, so how does that factor into things this afternoon?
Dewpoints are still in the upper 60s to near 70° so the heating will make things unstable for sure and I suspect that we’ll get another round of decent+ storms later today/tonight, especially after 5PM.
So while the forecast isn’t a total disaster and things are happening, it’s just evolving a bit more differently that I thought mainly from a timing perspective.
Hey did you catch what happened in Japan, towards the NW of Tokyo. A tornado killed one and injured dozens yesterday. take a look.
we continue to be under a slight risk of severe weather for the rest of the day according to SPC. We’ll see how this whole thing comes back together.
Here are some rainfall totals through noon…
& the Northland…
Have a somewhat drier afternoon…