Cold Front-Best Wx Yet-Building Heat
A lot to go over on this Saturday afternoon as skies have started to clear out now as the weak convection to our west near daybreak weakened as it moved through the metro creating just some light, pesky brief showers/sprinkles for the KC metro area.
The month of May so far has been warmer than average by more than 5° which is pretty impressive, but yet doesn’t “feel” as impressive to me since the rest of the year, by the monthly data at least, seems like it’s been much warmer compared to average as opposed to what we’ve seen so far this month.
Another issue is with the rainfall. Many we hit by the heavy rains a couple of Sunday’s ago, as some areas picked up close to 5″ in JOCO. It’s important to note that many areas missed out. So far @ KCI we have had .76″ which is almost 2.5″ below average. We’re into the wettest time of the year now for the next few weeks and depending on what happens later tonight into the 1st part of the day tomorrow, we may or may not add to those totals before some really nice but dry weather moves back into the region.
The situation for tonight is tied to the progress and development of storms that wlll be associated with a cold front off towards the west of the metro. I really don’t want to rehash again all the things that are working against us concerning that front producing a lot of widespread rainfall around here, see yesterday’s blog for that information but the same concerns are there today. Here is the latest surface map.
The region west of here is destabilizing nicely and while still capped, the cap is weakening out there. I expect a rather decent to severe line of storms to form across the plains along the front later this afternoon/evening and slowly push our way overnight tonight. As they do so, the will be running low on energy I think as the air starts to cool down and the storms outrun the best instability which will be west of the region through 10PM before wasting away afterwards.
So where does this leave us in the KC area. I’m not confident at this point that a decent rain will fall on a widespread nature in the area. Some will get 1/2″ others may get nothing and when I look farther down the road and see the potential of no additional rainfall for a long time, it does become concerning. I think the best chances for the metro to be hit with at least some rain/storms will be from near Midnight-10AM tomorrow. after that the front pushes through and the convergence leaves us. areas SE of KC towards the lakes region will have a better chance of picking up some storms/rain tomorrow PM through evening
Then we’re set up for great weather through Wednesday AM before the heat comes raging through the Plains. There is increasingly a heat wave look to the modelling for the Plains states for the late week into the holiday weekend. For KC the heat may be tempered a few degrees because of the “greenness” of the terrain, but a lack of rainfall will start adding up with increasing stressed terrain around here and that creates the increasing chances of seeing highs perk up a few more degrees. There may be some small windows for scattered storms as this process unfolds (late WED or THU?) but it really doesn’t look promising. Some parts of the Plains may flirt in the 103-108° range, especially in the western Plains area. The good news is around here the pools will finally be open again and I’m sure, very busy!
Finally Abby Eden and I were proud to announce the Welcome Home Hero parade and help out a earlier today near Crown Center. Here are a couple of pictures!
Have a great weekend!