A Weird Front-Rain Chances-Holiday Forecast

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Well the advertised warmer air is starting to move into the region as I type this blog this morning. The winds have certainly picked up, and as opposed to lows in the upper 40s to near 50°, this morning we started out with lows near or above 60°. The winds today should be gusty and approach 25-35 MPH…that should allow for some very nice mixing with highs int he 85-90° range or some 10° above average. So far this month we’re running some 4.5° above average and this month will be definitely another above average month of temperatures in the KC area.

The forecast though gets a bit more complicated THU-FRI because of cloud cover and some sort of outflow or weak cold front that will struggle to push through the region. This will be generated by a cluster of storms that will be forming later today and tonight across the Plains states. There is a risk for severe weather up there, and what does form may generate some sort of outflow boundary that will move into the area sometime tomorrow. Here is the severe weather forecast from SPC from this AM.

The next map shows the forecasted radar off the NAM model…this maps are never perfect but there should be activity up top the NW of the region later today/tonight.

We’ll see if it’s enough to generate an outflow or to push the actual front through the area. Normally when something like this happens we get a decent shot of rainfall from additional storms that develop with the boundary as it pushes through the region. Sort of like what happened during our last rain a few Sunday’s ago in the AM however as this process is occurring a strong push of warm air will also be moving in in the mid levels of the atmosphere which should “cap” off any storm development. What may happen tomorrow into FRI is that some moisture may get trapped beneath the cap and turn into cloud cover.

The boundary will then start lifting to the north on Friday, typically the better rain chances are north of the boundary in these situations so the prospects of the KC metro area getting rain will be tied to how far south the boundary gets before it starts lifting tot he north.

The holiday weekend looks mostly hot and humid with a chance of tying a record high on Saturday. It will certainly be humid with heat index values in the 95-100° range for most of the weekend. The record on Saturday is 92° set in 1985 while Sunday’s record is 94° set in 2006. With all the green running around I think the only chance is SAT for running to record levels, but we’ll certainly be close the other two days.

Rainfall chances may increase again later Monday as a weak front pushes into the region. IF that front hangs around on Tuesday maybe there could be a lingering chance as well.

That’s it for today. Have a great Wednesday and I’ll see you at 5/6PM for the latest on the holiday weekend forecast!

Joe

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