Another Big Rainstorm-PM Severe WX Thoughts

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This has been a strange month. It hasn’t really rained often. Some areas are still well under one inch of rainfall for the month. Meanwhile, some areas are closing in on 10 inches. Discrepancies like this are not uncommon, but what is interesting is here you have KCI at .94 of an inch, while parts of Johnson County are now up to nearly 10 inches.

This morning the storms were extremely good rain producers, and, again, areas in JOCO and JACO were hardest hit, as well as North Cass Co, Mo. Here are some rain totals thus far:

First farthest south where the rain was heaviest.

Now a little farther north..

and finally across the Northland…

This was created because of a front that moved across the region on Thursday, stalling near the I-44 corridor and then strong winds above the surface overrunning the front. Storms popped around 4:15 AM or so and kept regenerating while tapping into all the moisture aloft, so again very efficient rain producers. Here is the 11AM surface map.

The heat and humidity south of the warm front will surge into the region Friday and throughout the weekend. Highs are still expected to be 90-95 degrees on Saturday and Sunday. There is one thing that may keep us from reaching that potential, and that is high cloud cover and the latest NAM is bring a LOT of those clouds into the area on Saturday. Should the clouds be too think, I’ll be overshooting the highs by about 5 degrees and there is no way we get to record levels.

What to watch for tonight

We do have an issue that needs to be watched this afternoon. That would be the potential for regeneration and severe weather chances. These AM storms have laid some boundaries down, that plus a northward moving warm front and increasing heat in the PM may create additional storms after 5PM. Should those storms refire, depending on where the warm front sets up, odds favor somewhere from KC metro southwards. Should those storms interact with the warm front, the low level shear will be locally enhanced and the potential for rotating t/storms will increase. That means the potential for hail and even an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

Let me stress that this is very conditional and a lot needs to come together, but it is in the back of my mind and something that you’ll want to keep updated on during the news tonight at 5/6 PM with MT.

The negative to this potential is a rapidly increasing cap that will be moving into the area as the late AM and PM moves along. The NAM is forecasting our mid level temperatures to be approaching 13°C. that’s a decent cap that will need to be overcome and IF we’re only 80-85° I’m not confident that it can be overcome. It’s not out of the question it can happen but we’re really going to have to heat up in a big way. Here is the latest satellite picture showing the extensive cloud cover in place in the region.

Another storm chance will develop on Monday and I’ll blog more about that over the Holiday weekend!

Be safe and remember to use you heat safety ideas over the next several days.

Joe

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