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Surprise Rain Chances?-Thursday Storm-Chillier Days

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Well I think it’s safe to say that today will be the hottest ay of the week as temperatures will be dropping as the week goes along for a variety of reasons. we’ll get to all of that during the course of the weather blog.

First up is the landfall of the strongest tropical storm to hit the US mainland in at least 100 years. Beryl cam ashore earlier this AM packing winds of 70 MPH and creating a 2-6′ storm surge. Strongest winds along the NE FL coastline were near 65 MPH. The rain is certainly welcome for an area of the country that is in a drought as I blogged about over the weekend. You can clearly see the rotation in the storm on this radar loop.

Here is a look at the visible satellite picture showing the storm’s scope.

Pretty impressive looking storm that has by the way been downgraded to a depression that will continue to generate convection and rainfall for that part of the country. The storm will start moving towards the NE and re-emerge over the Atlantic sometime on Wednesday.

It may re-intensify again when it encounters the warmer gulf stream waters in the Atlantic.

Our weather is looking great and hot for the rest of the day. Our cold front is just barely moving along across eastern KS as of this writing. Here is the front as of 10AM…

Today the models through a wrinkle into the forecast of dry weather for tomorrow. There is some potential, since the front will slow to a crawl and/or stall just tot he south of the area that there could be an overrunning situation develop tomorrow PM.

The low-level jetstream is not the strongest but this is the time of the year where weird things happen to create rainfall. As talked about numerous times before, we’re in the wettest time of the year and it doesn’t take much to create something. This was also hinted @ in the 6Z model run as well. Whatever forms would move towards the E…or maybe ESE. That would place at least part of our area vulnerable for some midday-late day showers on Tuesday. At this point without any agreement from the GFS…I’ll keep the forecast dry. Don’t be surprised IF that changes tomorrow AM.

Another, more impressive storm will be digging in from the PAC NW through the N Rockies later WED into THU. This may bring a better and more widespread chance of rainfall into the region. You can clearly see this disturbance in the Plains states my later Wednesday.

As that wave drops in, it will generate rain/storms in it’s path. In addition to all this, chilly for May weather will be dropping into the storm. IF this would be winter, we’d be concerned about a transition snow. Obviously that won’t happen but still there is an increasing likelihood of highs on Thursday struggling through the 60s.

Some rather cool weather will move into the region behind the storm and give us great open window type days on FRI and SAT, kicking off the month of June!

Have a great Monday and I’ll update the blog again tomorrow AM.

Joe

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