Storm Chances Are Tricky

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Somebody…somewhere is going to get a bunch of rain over the next several days…whether that’s us…less of a chance, or somewhere else in the Plains states…more likely…at least something is going to be happening. I know that does you little good in planning, but every so often you just have to take the forecast day by day, and perhaps even hour by hour as we try and figure out where activity is going to form and whether or not various outflows and/or gravity waves and or actual complex movements are going to influence our weather around these parts.

The highest confidence at this point is for the heavier rains to stay across far NW MO and NE KS and points N and W of there…so it’s more likely that Maryville, MO to Marysville, KS gets significantly more rainfall that Sedalia to KC to Butler. This of course can all change depending on how things evolve. I hate being this vague, it sometimes just happens though and we’ll try and work through it over the next few days.

So here is the situation…a cold front is off towards the west of the region…ahead of that front we should light up with storms over the next few hours.

 

In anticipation of the storms the SPC has issued a Severe T/storm watch for the folks out across the Plains states.

 

The problem is that the push to this front is weak and to get it closer to us requires all sorts of small scale interactions to move this front along. As this is happening, the low level and mid level winds may try and keep the activity tot he NW of the immediate area…so we have some real battles going on and again we’ll just  have to see where things set up over the next 12 hours or so. For what it’s worth…here is the forecast of the RAP model for 8AM tomorrow.

 

You can clearly see the worst is well NW of here…

Complicating things is IF an organized area develops, will there be a MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) generated that meanders towards the east enhancing our chance of at least something making it towards the I-35 corridor near daybreak. So there are many possible outcomes…

This “weirdness” will continue into the weekend, especially SAT…even lingering into SUN as a chance as whatever boundary starts to lift back to the north, assuming a boundary actually gets to the area. The risk of storms does look to diminish heading towards next week, when highs again pop into the 90s.

We’ll watch things for you and MT will be watching radar all evening long.

Joe

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