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Forecast Is Still Driving Me Nuts

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Really it’s only today that the forecast is really tricky. There is still a lingering chance of something happening tomorrow, but there should be a lack of triggers for tomorrow despite some pretty hot and humid weather that will be in place. Today thought is still not clear cut and there are shades of yesterday happening out there as I type as a remnant MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex) is moving/drifting from the west to the east north of the I-70 corridor. my concern is that the storms that fire ahead of and around that circulation may be a bit farther north initially (more across N MO and NE MO) than closer to home. The storms that do fire there would have the chance of becoming marginally severe with hail/wind the main threats.

In the back of my mind I wonder as the MCV passes through, will we get on the subsident side of it should there be sinking air behind the wave, hence diminishing our storm chances this afternoon. This is a concern to me because the wave is VERY evident on the satellite imagery. This is sort of like what happened yesterday…at least so far. Here is the visible satellite picture showing the situation.

You can clearly see the rotation on the loop of pictures.

Today though is not a perfect copy of yesterday because of a weak cold front/wind shift line that is moving closer to the region. Here is the Noon surface map, showing the front and also a couple of outflow boundaries that are running around.

How the MCV and the cold front interact and alter things is still up for discussion. For those wanting widespread heavy rainfall through that MCV could be an issue. Interestingly the NAM has really (!) backed off from the widespread heavy rain potential that it was thinking about yesterday.. That cold front though is a large difference compared to yesterday and the reason why I can’t write the potential of something off later this afternoon. as a matter of fact the SPC has just issued a Severe T/storm Watch for an area from I-70 northwards on the MO side for the rest of the afternoon.

That front, assuming it actually moves through, will belly up immediately tomorrow and retreat back towards the north and/or dissipate as the day moves along allowing the hotter air to once again flood into the region.I’m still expecting a hot/windy day on Monday with gusts to 35 MPH+ possible. Not much else should happen through Thursday of next week, so these rain chances are important because the prospects look pretty awful for MON-WED. There should be another front entering the picture sometime THU or FRI with some chances of storms and then another ridge and more heat builds in after that for next weekend. By the way so far this month, we’re closer to average with our monthly temperature only running a degree above average through yesterday.

I’ll keep an eye on radar for you this afternoon. NC and NE MO will need to be watched for the potential of stronger storms for awhile.

Joe

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