Figured I’d better use the rain drops as the featured picture while I can. Not sure when I’ll get to use that picture again. Some will do considerably better than others, and while welcome for the KC metro area (for sure) this will not necessarily be a huge dent in our dry spell that is trying to teeter over into a low end drought in the immediate region. Some have certainly already crossed that line though, and whatever falls tonight will be a welcome addition.
Our cold front is located across NE right now and is moving this way. Storms are developing as I type this across N KS west of Concordia.
These are all good signs, including the decent dewpoints well into the 60s ahead of the front. As the front encounters the heat to our NW it will continue to blossom with additional storms. Areas NW of KC have the best chance of picking up near 1″ of rainfall out of this, and perhaps some additional higher totals are possible NW of the St Joe area.
Now the front will make it into the region.later this evening after 9PM. The storms however may not get here till near or after midnight. They should be weakening somewhat as they move into the region. I’m still thinking about .10″-.50″ as an average in the metro area with some areas getting less than that and perhaps others doing a bit better.
Areas farther SE of the metro should do about the same, although all spring long these areas seem to be doing a bit better with these type of situations.
Somewhat cooler and drier air is likely THU and FRI with the heat returning over the weekend. There are continued signs of a decent+ shot of heat developing sometime next week and the forecast really looks dry after tonight for another long stretch, so even IF we get .50″ into the soil, it will be baked out again by the end of the weekend so in reality with the pattern set up as it is just going to be a drop in the bucket. IF we could’ve had more rain chances over the next few days, this would be a good start, but it does appear as if Mother Nature will again turn off the spigot to the rain chances after tonight and early THU AM.
So here is what I’m expecting…
For the rest of the afternoon: Partly Cloudy with highs near 90° South winds to 30 MPH or so
6PM-10PM: Thunderstorms approach NW MO and NE KS, some with locally heavy rainfall. Small chance of winds of 45-55 MPH with some of the stronger cells.
10PM-2AM: Storms approach the metro. Line moves eastwards while individual cells move NE in the line. .10-.50″ as an average through the region. Some may get a bit more than that IF the line slows down somewhat.
2AM-6AM: Storms move through the KC metro area and start and continue to decrease in intensity as they push off towards the SE of the metro. Severe threat minimal.
3AM-6AM Thursday: What is left affects areas SE of KC.
After 6AM: We enjoy some cooler air & drier air as the dewpoints come down and a north wind helps give us a nice Thursday after some clouds in the AM.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed that tonight overachieves and we get more rain than what I’m thinking.
The rain has finally shut down in the Duluth, MN area as upwards of 6-9″ feel over the past 24 hours, causing some devastating flooding. When seals escape from the zoo and are found in a road, that’s never a good thing. Apparently the Duluth Zoo was really hit hard by floodwaters. Here are the doppler estimates of the rainfall up there.
Pretty impressive. If memory serves that area was under low end drought conditions for the early part of the Spring. Not so much now.
The heat has expanded across most of the country with some exceptions. Today Green Bay had their 6th 90° day of the year, which I think is equal to what happened in all of last year. The NY area is baking as well today with temperatures in the 95° range.