Running Towards 100°
Lets start with the good news, and that was the bonus rainfall that we saw overnight. I heard a few rumbles @ 1:30 AM and was so tired I slept through the whole storm. It didn’t sound to me to be ever coming down real hard at my house, but sure enough when I checked the rain gauge this AM I had 1.3″ of rain and a check of the doppler estimates and other rain gauges in the region all support that as well and then some!
Here are some rainfall maps for you, and for a change the amounts are very uniform in the 1-2″ range. I was surprised by the generous totals, especially since the t/storms were weakening for awhile but we’ll all certainly take it.
Click on those images to make them larger.
Officially @ KCI we had .93″ of rain. We’re still well below average for the year (5″) and below average for the month (1.8″). The rain last night and early this AM though will have to do us for quite some time as it looks like another long dry stretch with minimal chances of rainfall will be developing.
The story over the weekend is going to be the heat and the humidity as highs surge to 95-100° in many areas before you factor in the heat index, which potentially may get close to 105-110° on Sunday. The rain will eventually turn into a steam heat on Sunday especially. The NAM is VERY bullish on the heat. IF we didn’t have 1-2″ of rainfall in the soil to bake out, I’d be forecasting KCI to hit 100° That soil moisture though will need to get baked out before we hit 100°, especially with lighter winds (after a windy Saturday). Still regardless of all that, it is going to be nasty hot over the weekend, especially Sunday! Keep that in mind for the various outdoor things going on over the weekend, especially the Cardinals vs Royals games coming up @ the K!
It does appear as if we’ll see a return to more seasonable weather MON-TUE thanks to a backdoor cold front that will move through the region late Sunday into early Monday. Typically we’d be concerned about t/storms with this scenario, however with the temperatures in the mid-levels forecasted to be near 15°C or close to 60°F, that cap will be very difficult to break
The front in question will be located just nearby later Sunday, here is the map showing the position of the front.
We should see the dewpoints rise to potentially 75° on Sunday before settling back to near 60° later MON into TUE, so the more comfortable air will be moving on in.
We should then heat back up later in the week. Again at this point it looks dry. We should stay pretty capped for most of the week so between that and an upper level ridge close by, the combination is not a good one for rainfall.
Elsewhere in the world of weather, the seasons first Hurricane formed today in the far Northern Atlantic. His name is Chris and he is an unusual thing. It’s the earliest that a hurricane has been that far north and east in our recorded hurricane history.
There has been a hurricane that far north before (1893) but this is a rare thing for sure. Despite the cooler waters this thing has maintained itself and even strengthened over the past couple of days. The only concern for the path of Chris is for shipping concerns.
There is also a disturbance I’m monitoring down towards the Gulf Of Mexico that our computer models have grabbed onto and are trying to create another tropical storm from. The EURO/Canadian has it developing and moving westwards towards TX. The GFS has been developing something and moving it towards FL as a tropical storm. Today it takes a bunch of rainfall into FL. So we’ll keep watching it over the next couple of days.
The heat does continue back east. More record highs today combined with about 2 dozen yesterday. Here are the records from yesterday.
Marquette MI 88F tied 2005
Montpelier VT 89F tied 1953
Mount Pocono PA 89F tied 1953
Binghamton NY 90F tied 1953
Bluefield WV 90F
Massena NY 92F
Wheeling OH 93F
Morgantown WV 93F tied 1953
JFK NY 94F
Burlington VT 95F
Atlantic City NJ 95F tied 2010
Salisbury MD 97F
Wilmington DE 97F tied 1895
Hartford CT 97F
Richmond VA 98F tied 1933
Newark NJ 98F
Georgetown DE 98F
LaGuardia NY 98F
Nantucket, MA has hit at least 92° establishing an all-time record for June and today ties their 4th hottest day ever! Boston, JFK, Georgetown, DE and Washington D.C. has set/tied records so far today with more on the way I’m sure.
That’s about it for today. Enjoy the comfortable weather through tomorrow morning and get ready for the heat over the weekend!
Joe
