Heat Blast Continues, Maxes Out Mid-Week
As promised, it’s indeed a sizzler out there as temperatures are umping through the 90s as of this writing and before the day is done some may eclipse the 100° mark. The tricky part of the forecast is how hot it gets over the next couple of days as a weak front struggles to move through the region. The model data (NAM) for a few runs up till this latest one struggled to get the front through the area. The latest run is again on board with a pronounced wind shift that will allow “less hot” air to slowly filter into the region later Monday into Tuesday. Whatever break we get will be very short-lived as it may actually get hotter Wednesday and Thursday as the heat maxes out before the core of the heat weakens heading towards next weekend.
I’ve been hesitant in “officially” forecasting 100° for today because of a concern about too little wind and also our dewpoints being too high. We’re still in the mid-upper 60s and temperatures @ KCI are 94° at 1PM while it is 96° at the Downtown airport. Regardless of what KCI gets to today, I do think there will be a smattering of 100° around the metro. I was forecasting 100°+ for Monday though, and I may back off that number a few degrees in the evening update.
My feeling at this point is that Wednesday and Thursday will be the hottest days of this heat run. It seems to me that we’ll be primed and the airmass will actually be hotter that what is happening out there today. Our 5K temperatures are around 25-27°C, whereas at this level the forecast for Wednesday is for temperatures to be in the 29-31°C range. Take a look at the model forecast for Wednesday.
We also should have more wind to mix the air more, so I’m wondering about the potential of 100-105° heat on those days.
The core of the heat will start to fade by Friday into Saturday. although we may still push close to 100° on Friday. Hopefully there will be some sort of front moving our way sometime Friday/Saturday allowing at least a chance of some rain somewhere in the region.
You might be wondering why, with a front coming in sometime tomorrow, that I don’t have any storms in the forecast. The big reason is that the air, not only here at the surface, but also aloft through the atmosphere is so darn warm. Temperatures at 10K feet are running close to 15°+C which is as warm as they come at that level. That caps the atmosphere and stifles the air parcels from rising and creating towering clouds to produce storms. Hence a lack of storms.
Finally there is Debby to talk about. This storm has been giving forecaster fits. The GFS has been taking this thing towards the FL Bend area for days, while the EURO was taking it towards TX and the other models were all over the place. The storm is stationary with perhaps a bit of a NE drift and packing winds of around 60 MPH.
Most of the thickest clouds are located on the eastern side of the storm. This is because the winds aloft are stripping the convection/moisture away from the center of circulation closer to the surface. This is typically not a good environment for the storm to strengthen much. Those winds aloft will need to relax in order for Debby to strengthen more, which may not happen for a couple of days. Here is the forecast track for Debby.
Water levels have been rising now for the past couple of days as the storms surge and persistent SE flow of air is pushing Gulf waters up towards the Gulf shores and beach erosion has been reported across NW Florida.
Right now it appears the NW part of FL to Homosassa Springs (North of Tampa) needs to be the ones to watch this the most. Although even New Orleans needs to be careful in case this thing starts to intensify and move closer to the MS River region. That could spell some real trouble with storm surge issues. The “potential” silver lining with this is that it MAY help and provide significant drought relief for parts of the SE part of the country.especially for AL and GA which are both, in parts, in an exceptional drought (the highest level).
That’s it for today. Stay cool and remember all your heat safety rules. Somebody on FB wasn’t sure what they were so here you go.
Joe
