How Many 100s This Summer…& Some Smoke Too
A lot to go over on this Wednesday afternoon, but I have to admit, looking at the maps and the longer range projections today is not a very pleasant thing to do. You can see the road we’ve started to go on these last couple of days and it looks like the journey will be a long one for the next couple of weeks. It’s disconcerting to think that it’s only June and we’ve started this process, which will slowly but surely feed on itself as the drought really starts to fester for the next 10 days, if not longer. My colleagues at the NWS this AM came up with some weather stats to put the heat into perspective for you for the later part of June.
The average first 100 degree day in Kansas City occurs on July 20th. The last 100 degree day during the month of June took place on June 28, 1988 (June 1988 featured seven 100+ degree days and five consecutive 100+ degree days). There have only been four years with more than one 100+ degree day in the month of June since 1950 (1988, 1954, 1953, 1952). The warmest June day on record is 108 degrees set on June 23, 1934.
If no precipitation falls through the end of June, the 5.25″ of precipitation accumulated since April 1st will make the period of April 1-June 30, 2012 the 2nd driest stretch of history to the 4.46″ recorded in April 1-June 30 of 1911. From January 1st-June 30, the 13.00″ of precipitation at the Kansas City International Airport stands as the 15th driest stretch in history.
So here we stand looking at the maps and again it’s not a pretty sight as the “heat wave creator” will essentially sit and spin and vary from the Midwest to the W Plains and vacillate from place to place over the next couple of weeks. What this means for us is highs ranging from the mid 90s (at their coolest) to the 100-105° range at their hottest. As time moves along and we see the drought worsen then there could be some upside eventually down the road. There is still some green left out there, especially with the trees still doing good. When the trees start to stress more then the heat may increase even more, but that is something to think about in another month or so. As we bake what little moisture is left in the soil over the next 5 days or so we should start seeing the dewpoints drop off so in a sense it’s conceivable the heat index values will not vary that drastically from the temperatures.
Last night you may have noticed a more vivid sunset and the sunrise this AM had that hazy look to it. Over the next few days be alert to this because, at least last night, we were seeing the effects of the devastating fires that are out of control across the state of CO. Here is a look at the satellite images showing the smoke spreading our way, as well as encompassing much of the midsection of the nation.
the smoke is more readily seen as the sun is setting on the visible satellite pictures and from these, taken yesterday, it’s readily apparent through the Midwest, the smoke has gotten caught up in the middle part of the atmosphere and is circulating around the area of High Pressure that is controlling the Midwest weather.
Those CO fires are nasty, especially the one that got out of control and affected parts of Colorado Springs yesterday. Interestingly the reason why things got so bad so quickly there is because of thunderstorms. Storms formed in the mountains, which is not unusual for them, and then as they were raining themselves out they “collapsed” and created gusty winds which then took fires and sent them on an out of control rampage towards Colorado Springs. This all happened VERY quickly late Tuesday afternoon and as a result, close to 35K people have been evacuated from the city itself. Here is a look at the fire from a satellite perspective.
There is really no huge signs of relief there, although there are some storms percolating around the Colorado Springs area. They are very scattered though and there is no guarantee that the fires will get doused from anything Mother Nature can provide. If you want more coverage of the fires out there, our sister-station in Denver is doing a good job with it. They are also providing a live blog with the latest on evacuations and other pertinent information.
The rain chances closer to home look pretty low to none for the KC Metro and points southwards. There is actually a chance that some folks in N MO may get something over the weekend as a front will be nearby up there and storms should form along the front. The clouds from the storms may be our only hope of seeing temperatures get nudged down a bit. Here is the 5 day forecast off the HPC
Somewhat promising for the I-80 corridor but nothing promising for the I-70 corridor or point southwards.
Just looked at the latest EURO, NOT encouraging at all for rain or for any decent cooldown, or for that matter a return back to average at least for any substantial days.
Maybe something weird can happen over the weekend, but at this point I think the chances are about 2% for us in the KC Metro and points southwards.
At 3PM we hit 100° @ KCI for the first time this year…so how many times will we hit 100° this summer? I’ll go with 10 times…that’s 4 more times than last season.
Late Note: OZONE ALERT for Thursday
Joe
