Area Upgraded To Severe Drought
Well it’s official now…most of the region just got elevated another notch to severe drought status and this really should come as no surprise to anybody. One look outside and we can clearly see the stress caused by the heat and dry weather across our terrain. Yesterday I showed how KCI and Downtown KC are running close to 9 1/2 to now 9 3/4″ below average for rainfall since 4/1. An astounding number that will worsen over the next few days. Here is the report for MO…
Now for Kansas…
On the MO side what is significant is the HUGE one week trend in severe drought conditions going from 33% to 78% of the state.and this includes virtually all of the KC metro area.
On the KS side there was a consolidation of the extreme drought conditions out west and an expansion of the severe drought conditions across the eastern part of the state.
The drought monitor rates the drought on 5 levels with severe and extreme as the op levels and the worst conditions. The metro is one level away from extreme conditions and while the chance of rain is increasing a little later Saturday…it’s by no means a slam dunk.
The modelling came out last night (with the exception of the EURO) for a faster frontal movement and forced me to alter the weekend forecast. ahead of the front we should be 102-105°+ through Saturday…then the front will slowly creep through the region Saturday evening according to the data. What’s interesting is that it was firing up convection with the transition which seems to make sense, although the extent of the convection is still very much in question.
I can envision a scenario where one storm goes up and then collapses, sends out an outflow which then triggers off other storms. This should mean a somewhat haphazard rainfall pattern but at least the chance is there, especially south of the 36 highway corridor. This also means an earlier arrival (we hope) of the “cooler” air and the potential of highs closer to 90° for Sunday is increasing. Should the front slow down, that won’t work, but based on the faster timing it does look like the worst of the extreme heat will be over after Saturday.
From there we may enjoy a few days with highs in the 80s(!) as cooler air that’s been talked about for close to a week now filters into the region. The core of the heat and the hot air generator will be moving through the Rockies and heading west for next week, so while we should again heat up towards the end of the week…probably in the 90-95° range the nastiness of 100° should subside for at last a little while and perhaps continue through the middle of the month.
It’s not exactly the wettest pattern, I can see some minor opportunities. Actually aloft the air will be fanning out somewhat and creating divergence aloft. That is something that needs to be watched because with the dome of heat out west and us in NW/NNW flow, should there be a disturbance coming down from the Dakotas, there would be a chance for at least some of the rainfall to make it into the region. That is pure speculation at this point but something to file int he back of our mind for next week.
That’s it for today…I may tack on additional thoughts based on the new data that comes out around 10AM or so this morning.
Joe
