Isolated Storms-Drought Festers-100°+ Again

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The title of the blog says it all. The good news is that we’ve seen a FEW isolated storms fire up in the heat of the afternoon today, and that process may happen for the next couple of days maxing out on Friday as a weak disturbance rides down the eastern edge of a building area of high pressure in the middle part of the atmosphere. These “ridge runners” are tough to time out but there appears to be one due in sometime Friday. So while the rain chance is about 10% today and tomorrow…it doubles to about 20% for Friday with some minor upside potential.

Our convective temperatures are somewhere in the 90-95° range which means that once the surface rises to near 90-95°, air parcels will be free to move up into the atmosphere, cool down and condense the moisture and start to form vertical clouds that can come together and create t/storms like what we’re seeing now through SE JO Co on the MO side. The showers/storms are usually slow moving and can create some locally heavy rainfall. The problem is that they often last under 30-45 minutes or so, before the cooler air generated by the storm itself kills the updrafts helping to sustain the storms. Then the storm weakens rather quickly.

While there MAY be some rain out there for a couple of days. nothing really widespread is expected for the next 10+ days which will continue to exacerbate the drought that has now firmly gripped our area. The new drought update comes out tomorrow and the news will not be good for the region as severe drought continues to grip some 78% or so of MO. While conditions have been nasty from a drought standpoint here…imagine this.

In Phoenix, after the 2nd hottest June on record…heat warnings are going up for areas to their west. So far this year they’ve hit 110+° 8 times (average is 18). They’ve hit 100+° 52 times…the average is 110. The monsoon rainfall which started a couple of weeks ago has been shut of now as the hot dome of air that was on top of us for that long stretch has moved back westwards and shunted any tropical moisture away from them. This is the type of situation where Death Valley goes crazy on the heat. I think yesterday’s high out there was 125°+ and more of that is likely.

As that ridge out west starts to migrate eastwards, very slowly too, our heat here will slowly increase. We’re probably looking at 90-95° through Saturday then we’ll tack on another couple of degrees SUN before getting into the dreaded 100-105° for a few days next week.

Remember how bad the drought was last year across OK and TX. Houston was one of the hardest hit cities with some 9″ of rainfall through the 10th of July last year. This year, not including today, and there was some heavy rainfall around there again today…they’ve had close to 30″ of rainfall. San Antonio today set a new daily record for rainfall with close to 2 1/4″.

That’s about it for today, overall with the exception of a few storms out there to the south of the KC metro…another lazy Summer day. BTW, Thursday will be an Ozone Alert day…we’ve had a bunch of these lately. At least you get to save money on the buses!

Joe

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