Heat Wave: Round 2-Day 1
So it begins again…another significant run of strong Summer heat of at least 95°+ that will last for days on end with slight chances/no chances of rainfall and the drought continues to worsen for many of you.
Granted there was some rainfall out there yesterday. Downtown had about 6/10″ of rainfall on THU/FRI…but most missed out. Here is a look at the rainfall amounts detected by Doppler radar for the region over the past 3 days…
While there may be a lot of color on there, a lot of it is the lighter blue shades which mean totals are under 1/4″ and since we’re evaporating about 1/4″ of moisture from the soil each day., whatever moisture you got will be tapped out in about 2-4 days depending on the amount you received.
Sadly there is not much hope for anything of significance for quite some time. We average about 1 1/2″ of rain every 10 days during this time of the year, but even in the better rainfall summers we are familiar with just how haphazard the rainfall patterns can be during this time of the year.One feature that is missing from our weather are the overnight and early morning rounds of convection that we normally get. The phenomena is actually one of our better rain makers. Typically we see big storms fire off through he high plains and roll down the MO River Valley and approach our region. That has been mainly absent from our weather for the last 6+ weeks or so and it’s a sign of the upper level high being so close to us…forcing this type of activity much farther north.
Here is a look at the next 7 days off the GFS. The rainfall is tied to the potential of a front heading this way on Thursday from the Great Lakes region…
This suggests part of the area, especially up north have a shot of getting some ch needed rainfall. The problem is the front in question, is just that…in question., or at least the southern extent of it is.
The latest EURO does indeed have the front getting oh so close to the region but then the front is forecast to fall apart and/or lift back to the north very quickly. This means that whatever relief we may get, would be fleeting at best, perhaps about 5-10 degrees before the heat rebuilds again.
The models, while hot, are not as extreme as the heat from a about 10 days ago. I still think that whatever heat moves in is in the 97-102° range as opposed to the 103-108° heat that we saw earlier this month. So with that said, again another rather prolonged run of 95°+ heat is likely, and while there may be a brief break either on FRI, it’s something that should be viewed with suspicion at this point.
Also important to note that we are coming into the hottest part of the year on average which starts in about a week or so.