Day 8-Round 2 Of The Heatwave

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For those of you who follow us on twitter @fox4wx, you learned this AM that the record for the most consecutive days with highs of 90° or above is 39 set back in 1934. Today will be our 28th day in a row with no end in sight. There is a “chance” of some rain in sight though which we’ll talk about in a minute:

I really don’t have a lot to change about the forecast I made this AM. The only thing I massaged a bit is to reduce the high temperature potential a few degrees for the next 4-5 days. I’m maxing things out at 106° for KCI (official station for KC). I decided to reduce the highs today and tomorrow a bit more 99°/103° based on the atmosphere not being as hot as it was looking a few days ago and with today’s SE winds circulating some of the same “less hot” air that was with us yesterday and winds tomorrow being from the due south which at this point in time is not the hottest weather direction for us, I thought it was the right thing to do. Time will tell if I made the right decision but I’m encouraged by the noon readings thus far and the model forecasts for tomorrow.

In case you’re wondering about the records for this time of the year…click on that image to make it larger.

The days I think are most interesting is Monday and Wednesday…perhaps moreso on Wednesday.

There is a front that will threaten the area on Thursday and is why we’ve included a chance of some rain for the last couple of days in the forecast. The issue is that I doubt it will be widespread at this point although we could hope. There is also a likelihood that the bulk of the cold air will be flowing more towards the ESE or East as opposed to the SE or SSE. This may push the hottest air to our west for a couple of days, but still allow our highs to pop well into the 90s. Here is what the GFS thiinks…

Finally this PM I read an interesting article from the NWS in Chicago comparing the heat wave of 1995 to the current one for that area. It’s fascinating to see that difference thus far in the death toll. In 1995 it got close to 750 which is amazing in this day and age. So far this heatwave for them from that standpoint is not nearly as high. The main reason is the difference in the humidity. This heat wave is accompanied by drought conditions which has led to lower dewpoints in the region. The heatwave of 1995 was different in that the dewpoints/humidity was more typical of Midwest heatwaves. Hence the large difference in death toll. So perhaps the drought is saving some lives compared to the potential of the devastating heat?

Here is a link to the article…and here is a snapshot quote for you.

Meteorologically speaking, the most striking difference between the 2 heat waves was certainly the heat indices experienced during the afternoon hours. Generally speaking, heat indices between 95°F and 105°F can be tolerated with appropriate precautions, but when heat indices get over 105°F and particularly up to 115°F the ability of the body to keep its internal temperature regulated dramatically decreases. The chart below compares the average daytime heat indices between the 2 heat waves. This clearly shows that the 1995 heat wave was much more intense during the daytime hours.

That heatwave killed almost 160 people in KC. So far the heatwave(s) this summer have killed less than 10 it’s believed. My suspicion is that the lower dewpoints (drier) air is helping our cause to a certain extent. Take this AM for instance…lows were in the lower 60s in some of the outlying areas and that allows buildings to cool off somewhat @ night before heating back up again during the day. I also assume wider usage of A/C is helping out as well. Let’s hope these trends continue for the rest of what will be a very hot rest of the summer!

Joe

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