It’s A Dry Heat!

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Yesterday @ 4PM I sent out a tweet on Twitter (fox4wx) about how our humidity was 16% and the humidity in Phoenix was 33%. Right now our dewpoint is 45° which is desert dry thanks to the drought in place and the dewpoint in Phoenix is 72° which is nasty humid for them and more like a typical KC late August day. It’s a weird summer for sure. In all honesty, the monsoon season continues out west and parts of AZ and NV are being hammered by heavy rainfall as of this typing.

There have been some decent rainfall tallies out there…take a look at doppler estimates from the NWS radar in Las Vegas.

Some nice pockets of 1-4″ rainfall amounts…keep in mind because of the mountains out there, the radar only does an OK job picking out the storms and the totals.

Back home, things are changing in the weather world and the prospects for at least some rainfall are increasing. This is not a clear cut situation, and while yesterday the best chances looked to be on Sunday, now it looks like the better chances may be on Saturday with the potential of an appetizer on Friday now.

All this is happening because the flow is starting to flatten out allowing monsoonal disturbances to cross through the Plains states. if you remember the last time this happened we had all those neat swirls of clouds and sadly, dying rains, move across KS and really not do to much for us, and this very well may happen again on FRI and SAT. So while I’m sticking the chance of rain in the forecast at this point I’m not as optimistic on the totals as the NAM would suggest through later Saturday especially for areas NW of the metro.

What will happen I think is a lot of residual cloud cover will be able to knock our highs back down into the 80s again, so after a few days of 95° weather, we should see a break in the highs, although the lows are going to come back up I think.

Speaking of the overnight lows, the average low for the month thus far is 62.4° which is some 5° below average and for the month as a whole the average temperature is 1.7° below average so the summer reversal continues.

Meteorologists and Republicans are also watching the forecasts of Isaac which is still towards the east of San Juan, PR. there has been a subtle westwards adjustment in the long-range track of the storm. Again as I mentioned yesterday this is going to change, perhaps by hundreds of miles over the next 3-5 days.

To me what is interesting is what the EURO keeps churning out. Again we’re talking about forecasts now 7-10 days in the future. First here is the Day 7 forecast showing Isaac as a MAJOR hurricane approaching New Orleans virtually to the day 7 years after Katrina hit the region.

Now take a look at the forecast on Day 10, again this is pie in the sky stuff but fascinating to me because guess where Isaac eventually is heading towards?

There are all sorts of interesting things about that solution, including strong N/NE winds flowing out of the strong high pressure area across the N US into the remnants of Isaac, the potential of flooding rainfall in the region hardest hit by the drought, and the potential of a stalling storm because the High to the north blocks it’s northward movement. This is a fascinating solution with about a 1% chance of happening. It’s something to talk about though. That Republican Convention in Tampa next week is becoming a threat area for the potential effects of Isaac. It should also be very interesting to follow how the decision makers react to something like this in the next couple of days, ranging from delays to worse case scenario stuff. Let’s just say the organizers there are pulling hard for the EURO model to do a better job than the American model (GFS) which takes Isaac right into FL with flooding rainfall and strong winds early next week. The UKMET model from England is looking even worse for western FL. Of course the EURO model paints a devastating picture for the northern Gulf Coast area.

Again this is a very fluid situation and will keep us very interested for the next 5 days!

Joe

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