Impressive Rains On Radar + Isaac
Let’s start with the rainfall that is very apparent on radar this AM…not a lot going on across the KC metro area and points SE and it will be a slow process to get the rain into the heat of the metro, but eventually, I think, during the late AM and early PM hours we should get into it, if not earlier.
The “Wall Of Drought” held again as the wave of rain that was moving into the area started to fall apart late this morning as it was inching closer. While there have been some light showers out there this afternoon, nothing heavy is expected for the rest of the daytime hours. We are going to have to rely on tonight’s new development to give us the bulk of the rainfall. The latest RUC data/forecast is somewhat concerning and hopefully wrong as it would only give us a fast shot of storms with minor rainfall. Here is it’s forecast through 3AM Sunday…
If that’s right….my goodness. It shows the low level jet veering off and not poking at the I-70 corridor, that would remove the main instigator to getting a large area of storms to develop whereas the NAM pokes that jet towards us, allowing storms to form and move up the I-35 corridor.
Here is a look at radar from Pleasant Hill, MO.
I continue to expect the highest rain totals over the next 2 days to be towards the NW of the metro. Some areas out there may see close to 3″ IF things work out. Here is a look at doppler estimated rain totals so far.
There is a disturbance near Emporia slowly moving NEwards. As it does so the wall of rain out west should inch closer to the metro and eventually move in. This will be part one of the storm for the KC area. Part two should come tonight as the low level jet runs over a boundary left over by part 1 of the storm. This should create new rain and perhaps even some thunderstorms that should move through the region overnight into tomorrow AM. This should be the bulk of the rainfall for the KC area. There is potential for upwards of 1.5″ of rain, but at this point I’ll stick with my near 1″ of rainfall for the metro area and hope I’m being too conservative. Areas SE of the metro may have a tougher time with all this because I’m not expecting much today and tonight’s activity may be to the NW of them for a while. So amounts there may be near or below 1″. Again hopefully I’m being to conservative.
Something a little different will happen for a few days (at least) next week. That would be higher humidity/a return of the muggies. It’s been awhile since we’ve talked about humid weather, but with the expected rainfall this weekend, that moisture will need to get evaporated over the course of several days and that means dewpoints will likely be well into the 60s, if not into the 70s. that does a couple of things, 1) reduce the air temperature a couple of degrees and 2) increase the heat index, which we haven’t talked about in a long time. So while highs may be 85-90 (seasonable) Monday and Tuesday, it’ll feel pretty thick out there. Highs after that should be in the 90-95° range with muggy conditions expected for most of the week. Areas that see less rainfall (SE of KC) this weekend may not be as muggy as areas towards NW MO and NE KS.
Isaac is still a tropical storm at this writing, but has started to move away from Haiti and is now off the coast of NW Haiti…
There hasn’t been a real change int he forecast track at this point…
Hurricane Warnings are up for the FL Keys and a Tropical Storm Warning is up for an area from West Palm Beach southwards. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect farther north of that towards Vero Beach. In advance of Isaac, heavy rains are falling now n in the Keys area as well as SE FL. By the time this storm moves away from FL, some areas may see 10-15″ of rainfall.
Have a great day, the new NAM just cam in with decent plus rain totals for most of the area, maybe the metro can get to the high side of rain out of this.