A Blustery Friday!

Posted on: 6:36 am, September 6, 2012, by , updated on: 08:40am, September 6, 2012

clouds

Well some great weather is coming up over the next 5-7days with one speed bump ahead and that would be tomorrow. Today though will be great with lower humidity/dewpoints and typically warm late summer highs near 90. Average by the way is 83.

The early AM weather map is showing a stationary front across Central MO and SE KS. This is the same front that moved through the region yesterday sweeping the higher dewpoints (humidity) to the south. As expected the front has stalled and now will slowly start retreating ahead of a stronger Canadian front that will be moving in tomorrow.

The Canadian front in question by later today will be located across the upper Midwest. Here is the RAP for forecast for that time from, showing the forecasted frontal location.

As that front moves our way, the surface winds will shift more towards the SE/S and allow some of the higher dewpoints from the south to move back towards us. Aloft there will be some energy as well to help destabilze things, so at least some t/storms are expected to form later tonight and early tomorrow. The activity will not be widespread.

Then when the front moves in tomorrow, after perhaps seeing highs near 75, the cooler air will win the fight and temperatures may actually drop as the day moves along. With rain/showers in the area we may be in the 60s for awhile. Some of the new data also indicates that we may see some breaks in the clouds later in the day. Regardless it may be rather blustery for a few hours tomorrow as all this unfolds.

Rainfall amounts at this point don’t look overly impressive. We are soooo lucky we got that rain from Isaac! Here is one of our Microcast models showing average amounts between 1/10 and 5/10″ of rainfall.

Click on that image to make it larger.

Again the weekend looks great. I did bump up Sunday’s high a bit because I have this feeling that things are moving a bit faster and that we might be setting up for a nice downslope warming day as the air descends from the western Plains through the region. Again we’ll start chilly…40s. The record by the way is 46 I think set back in 2008.  From there we shoot for highs 80-85 or so.

Looks like we heat up on Tuesday and then see another drop in the highs for Wednesday of next week.

There are a couple of systems in the Atlantic that I’m watching for you. One is Leslie that will threaten Bermuda over the weekend. Some of the model guidance suggests that the worst may be east of Bermuda but this will be a close call. The waves from this large storm will affect the eastern seaboard all weekend long, especially the NE part oft he country and there may be dangerous rip currents as well.

Here is a look at the season’s first major hurricane…this is Michael with winds of 115 MPH as of this writing.

The latest drought report comes out this AM…I’ll try and update the blog when it does so and also update Twitter!

 

The latest drought report has come out and is showing a MAJOR improvement, mainly on the MO side. There has been a 2 category “upgrade” from the worst case “exceptional” to the still bad but better situation of “severe” and for parts of NE MO the drought was “upgraded” to “moderate.”

Here is the information for the MO side.

Meanwhile on the KS side the news was not as good. While there was some minor improvement across parts of NC KS, areas just SW of KC are still stuck in the worst category…”exceptional.”

Here is an excerpt from the latest drought report.

“On the Plains, a cold front is crossing Montana and North Dakota, accompanied by a few showers. Unfavorably hot, dry weather persists across the remainder of the nation’s mid-section. On September 2, rangeland and pastures rated very poor to poor ranged from 47% in North Dakota to 96% in Nebraska.

In the Corn Belt, mostly dry weather accompanies late-season warmth. Summer crops continue to mature at a rapid pace, but pastures are in need of additional rain. On September 2, more than 40% of the pastures were rated very poor to poor in every Midwestern State, with a range from 42% in Minnesota to 99% in Missouri.”

Joe

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