A Tricky Red Friday Forecast

Posted on: 5:12 am, September 7, 2012, by , updated on: 12:25pm, September 7, 2012

rain

1PM Update+++

I’m so glad I jumped the forecast temperatures and delayed the rain chances because that is the way things are playing out. Clouds are finally developing and while we’ve seen temps in the 80-85° in the metro it’s dropping up to our north and there is also rainfall out west moving this way. As of this writing the rain is just to the west of Manhattan and moving this way. It should arrive around 3PM from west to east through the region. Here is the noon surface map showing the front through the area and the much cooler air lagging behind the front.

Ahead of the front there is some nice instability building so some convection is not out of the question.  here is the latest daytime satellite image.

 

So while we’ll see some sun for the next couple of hours the clouds will win…the rain may last about 3-4 hours. Temperatures are going to be in the 60s I think later this afternoon and early this evening…so my AM forecast is working out.

++++++++++

I thought I’d do a 10AM update for you…as the front to the NW of KC is still moving towards the area. We have seen a lot of sunshine this AM and we should see highs into the 80s today with even higher temps possible SE of the KC area. Rain chances are still there but the rain may not materialize till the middle part of the afternoon. I’m not too excited about the amount of rainfall however and still think that we’ll see under 1/2″ with some areas struggling to get 1/10″ and some may not even get that much. So essentially not as much rain as what was expected last night.

Here is the 10AM surface map…

Areas SE of the metro may see highs near 90 and while we’re capped now, that will not be the case to the SE of the metro later today. So there is the potential of some strong-severe storms to fire up in the afternoon. Something to watch for.

++++++

These type of weather days are neat for those into weather, but boy than can give those same people some headaches. A cold front will be plowing into the region as the morning rolls on, but looking at the surface maps early on this RED Friday, the air immediately behind the front, while cooler, is not exactly chilly. As of this writing there are few clouds out there as well…this means we’re going to see at least some sunshine through the first part of the morning. That should allow temperatures to quickly warm up into the lower 80s, (warmer SE of the metro), then as the front moves through and the lower clouds start to develop, we should quickly see temperatures level off, and as the lift in the atmosphere behind the front increases a decent size area of rainfall should develop.

Now as all this is happening, the winds will continue to pick up from the north at 15-25 MPH dragging down the cooler air. Between that and the rain that’s falling and cooling the airmass even more the set-up is there for what we’ve talked about for the last few days…60s and chilly weather. So really the only big change so far today has been a slightly delayed arrival of the rain, allowing the temperatures to warm a few extra degrees.

As of the 4AM hour here is the latest surface map…I’ll try and update this again towards 9AM or so if I have time.

The weekend still looks wonderful, although we may NOT be as cool as I was thinking for SUN AM. While there may be some 40s somewhere, a secondary front will move in SUN AM so we may actually see temperatures SAT night not drop off as much ahead of that secondary front.

We are also going to warm up again for a few days next week. We’ve had 69 days I think with highs 90+ in 2012 and we may get back to those lofty levels TUE and WED of next week. There should be another front and rain chance sometime later WED or Thursday.

Finally the NWS updated their drought graphic for the local area…a pretty significant change from last week at this time!

Lastly…I’ll be taking some time off from the station for about a week or so and probably won’t have much internet access so blog updates might be limited. I’ll see you again on the 16th.

Joe

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