This blog will be brief as time is running short on me this afternoon but the cold front has pretty much moved through the region as most areas are now reporting a NW/N wind. the chillier air however is lagging behind the front by about 50 miles or so, that’s why we’re in the 70s from KC southwards. Once you get towards St Joe temperatures drop into the mid 60s then as I mentioned yesterday we’re down into the 50s for far NW/N MO and NE KS. Yesterday I predicted the cooler air arriving during the evening rush, and I still anticipate the temperatures to drop about 10-15° or so by early this evening.
As far as rain chances go, there are a couple of storms out there, especially south of Topeka moving SEwards. A few small cells are trying to pop on the northside but are really struggling as of this writing. There may be some scattered activity in the region through rush hour but overall the coverage doesn’t look that generous.
There are really no major changes needed to my forecast from last night. the only change I made was to up Wednesday’s high about 5°. The cool air that’s moving in tonight will move out early WED AM. Temperatures just above the surface will quickly warm right back up ahead of another weak front moving our way WED evening. SW winds should allow readings to really pop and we should make the 80-85° range by afternoon with a good SW breeze. The wind shift moving through may only drop our highs a few degrees on Thursday. Here is a look at the GFS forecast @ 5000′ showing the rapid movement of the airmasses int eh middle of the country.
The bluer colors represent the the cooler airmass. The redder colors show the warmer air moving through the Western Plains states (lower right side: 7AM WED).
Now as we head towards Friday things will change more dramatically as a stronger push of Canadian air is slated to move into the region as I talked about yesterday as well. Here is the GFS forecast for SAT AM…not the extent of the cooler/colder air through the upper Midwest.
Temperatures at that level (about 5K feet) are actually near or below 32°F along and north of the I-80 corridor. Saturday is also the 1st day of the fall season and while I’m not expecting record lows out of this airmass, lows in the 30s ARE possible and increasingly likely for part of our viewing area so IF you’re a gardener, time to start paying attention to the forecast for the weekend for the potential of some patchy frost.
At this point, rainfall is not expected to be significant for the next 7+ days, so it looks like we may end the month the way most of the summer has gone. Thank goodness we got that moisture from Isaac. There is the potential for some additional rainfall however before the month is done, how much though with the Gulf moisture in question is still too soon to tell.
Have a great night and enjoy the cooler weather!