Watching For Some Frost

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Good morning and thanks for taking a few minutes reading the FOX 4 Weather Blog. All is quiet this AM across the region as High Pressure behind a cold front has moved into the region. This cooler airmass will make a brief stay in our area before we rapidly warm up tomorrow.

I really enjoy this time of the year. In my opinion from essentially the 10trh of September through about the 20th of October, typically our weather is about as good as it gets. Cool mornings and mild afternoons. We should be on average in the 75-80° range and lows in the 55-60° range and as you look at the forecast, you’ll notice that either we’re above or below that range for a good part of the next 5-6 days.

Temperatures this AM dropped into the upper 30s in some areas across N MO. With full sunshine I still think we can make 70° before the end of the day…about 10° below average. There are some clouds moving through the Plains, most should stay west of the area today but it’s something to watch for.

Tomorrow, as talked about for a couple of days will feature a rapid warming trend thanks to a substantial warm-up of the air just above the surface. As I blogged about yesterday the temperatures aloft will be jumping from a +6°C this AM on the Topeka sounding to a +17°C by tomorrow evening. That rapid warm-up with enough wind should translate nicely to the surface so highs in the mid 80s are very doable for tomorrow afternoon ahead of a weak front that will ease our highs back to average on Thursday.

Again the focus for the forecast is the weekend chill. There is a VERY questionable rain chance on Friday, which I’m still hesitate about. I may insert a chance of rain in the evening forecast as I talked about yesterday. Regardless of that, the cooler air will come in either later Friday or into SAT AM. Our temperatures at about 5K feet will be dropping to about a +2-4°C. That’s chilly air, and while the record lows I think are not in jeopardy for Sunday AM, some areas across N MO may see lows near 35°. Again for you gardeners that is an issue as patchy frost may get very close to the metro.

Elsewhere across the country, there is a risk of severe weather across the NE part of the country. Once again, the NYC area may be under the gun later today There will be a tremendous amount of shear in the atmosphere. There is a question about instability there because of some cloud cover, the SPC has highlighted the NE for potentially some tornadic weather.

It seems, as is typical in severe weather set-ups that gusty winds are more of a concern.

Oh and IF you want the cold…International Falls, MN dropped to 20° this AM. 1° away from an ALL-time September low temperature for them! Tonight the focus of the chill moves towards the upper Great Lakes region. Here is some information from the NWS in Marquette, MI.

Joe

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