Friday Warmth…Sunday Frost
Well we’ve made it to the end of the week and the forecast has changed little all week long. Skies now are in the process of clearing out and we should be mostly sunny for the rest of the day with highs surging to near (or above) 80°. This will be our last “warm” day till Monday afternoon as a cool surge of air from Canada pays a visit to the metro just in time for the 1st day of fall which is tomorrow @ 9:49 AM CDT.
The air will be coming towards our area from N MN and SC Canada…temperatures up there early this AM are in the lower 40s.
The temperatures are denoted in red.
Here is a look at the GFS model for the temperatures at 5K feet. It’s often a good way to track the various airmasses as they travel through the country. Note the bluish shades descending through our region. Also note the reddish hues out across the Rockies and the western US…that warm air will return towards our area beginning on Tuesday with highs again expected to be back up into the 80s. So while summer officially leaves us tomorrow, we’ll still have some nice mild days, as is typical of the fall season, to enjoy for awhile.
The map above will auto update through the weekend for you. It goes every 12 hours. If you read this in the AM…the time in the upper left starts at 7AM the day you read the blog…and goes through 7PM the following day. If you read this in the afternoon it starts @ 7PM the day you’re reading the blog and ends at 7AM (36 hours later).
Anyway what you’ll notice in this map over the weekend is that the bluer shades will rotate away from the region by early next week.
Sometimes we can get surprise showers when we transition from these various airmasses. Although that is more difficult during the fall season as moisture is more limited, and that will be the case I think on Monday, however we may pick up some additional clouds from the transition on Monday.
Can we get any rainfall next week…well at this point I think there will at least be some showers in the region Wednesday and/or Thursday, but how much and exactly where are still looming questions especially from 5+ days out. The set up is there though if we can get some moisture to work back into the region It will be connected to a weakening piece of energy being ejected through the Rockies. Here again is the GFS model 5 days from now.
You can see the energy in the Rockies, where it goes and how it opens up will go a long way in determining our rainfall chances and totals. I’m not overly optimistic at this point for anything significant.
That’s it for today, remember blustery weather tomorrow AM then lighter winds tomorrow night and Sunday AM may create frost in the region, especially from the metro northwards so for you gardeners…heed the chance and take those tender plants inside. It will quickly warm-up on Sunday afternoon back into the upper 60s!
Joe
