Welcome To Fall…And Rain?

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Good Saturday to you, as fall has now started and the nasty summer has officially come to an end. I’m still not sure how I feel about all of that. June and July were absolutely brutal, but thanks to a reasonable August, the meteorological summer was the 16th warmest in our history. So far September is running about 7/10’s of a degree below average and this weekend certainly will knock that a bit lower but there are, as they say changes in the wind.

So with that said…lets ask you a question. Feel free to add you’re answer and I may use the results on Tuesday night on FOX 4 News.

OK, the much talked about cooler air is moving through the area now, and one look to the north of the region shows the extent of the chilly air that’s heading this way. For those winter lovers out there, it actually snowed and stuck a little across parts of N MN last night.

The winds should start to pick up as the AM and early afternoon moves along…probably in the 15-25 MPH area and from the north.

There are no changes to the forecast for tomorrow…again readings in the AM may drop into the 30s so frost is a possibility for some areas tomorrow AM. If you’re a gardener, you’ll want to cover and and take some potted plants inside tonight just to be safe.

We’ll quickly see this cool airmass roll away from the region tomorrow night and that should allow highs to bounce back to the 70s on Monday. There may be some cloud issues out there on Monday as a matter of fact we may even see some clouds develop tomorrow as well. That is a sign of the warmer air aloft starting to move back into the area.

The warmer air will work it’s way down to the surface on Tuesday as highs should make it well into the 80s again. As this process peaks on Tuesday and with a weak warm front in the region, we will start to moisten the atmosphere and may start to see some scattered shows develop. The better chances arrive late Tuesday into Thursday of next week. If you remember from yesterday’s blog, I talked about a disturbance that would be opening up and moving in pieces towards the Midwest. Today’s data continues to have that as well.

Here is the 84 hour NAM model forecast…for 18K feet,showing these little waves in the mid section of the country.

The mother wave if you will is across the Rockies and shown by that bigger dip out in Colorado. Where that thing eventually goes will go a long way in determining how much rainfall we get over the course of several days. There is a set-up for some decent moisture with this scenario. The GFS is certainly bullish to an extent. Here is it’s forecast for the next 7 days.

Nice little 1-2″ swath across much of the region. We’ll see about that. the GFS has been wretched as you well know, but there is support from the EURO model as well…so hopefully something close to this may evolve. It would be welcome and it would be unique compared to what’s happened for the last 5 months or so!

More on that potential tomorrow. Have a great Saturday as we welcome fall into KC!


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