Chilly Start…What About Some Rain?
Well as expected temperatures this morning dropped into the 30s for many of you. I woke up a bit too late to see if I had any frost out there so feel free to comment if you saw some this AM…but I’m pretty sure there had to be at least some to kick off Sunday. This culminates a very accurate forecast from almost a week out predicting this potential.
Here is a look at some of the morning lows around the region. KCI dropped to 39° through 7AM…and it’s possible it dropped a bit more between 7-8AM this morning.
The first map is a regional view…the second map is for N MO.
Now let’s head up to the north of here…
There were a few areas that are typically colder than others…for example St Joe and Lawrence both dropped to 31°. Both these reporting sites are in very low lying areas compared to immediately around them and since cold air drains into these low lying areas (since it’s heavier-more dense) they have a tendency to to several+ degrees lower than surrounding areas. still though an impressively cool night. I believe the record of 34° will stand another year!
Our cool airmass is in the process of moving away from the area this AM. In its wake, much warmer air is starting to move in. You can see this aloft by looking at the satellite picture as clouds are developing to the SW of the area and there are some showers across NE OK this AM.
As this warmer air moves in overnight tonight 1) it won’t be as cool tonight and 2) we’ll see some clouds develop here tomorrow. There have been various hints in the modelling that there could be some weird sprinkles or light showers developing tomorrow (Monday). The bottom 10K feel of the atmosphere will be pretty darn dry but I guess I can’t totally rule something out even tomorrow.
The more interesting weather starts on Tuesday and continues for the rest of the week. A warm airmass will be located from near KC southwards. As a result a warm front will be located very close, if not on top of the metro. This is a set-up for some rain. How much is still a question but the potential is increasing of periodic bouts of showers and storms that may add about 1/2″ to 1 1/2″ of rainfall to the area between Tuesday and Saturday. Timing all this out is still not possible, again going back to the thoughts that what we’re trying to predict doesn’t even exist as of this writing, but the low level nightly jet will play a role in storm development. The best combination of jet location, moisture and frontal positioning looks to occur early WED am through midday on Wednesday. So let’s watch that time span for some extra rainfall hopefully.
Something else you’ll be noticing over the next 3-5 days, more humidity as the dewpoints should start to come back up to near summer time levels with dewpoints well into the 60s becoming more likely by WED/THU. This should help the cause when we can spark of some convection because not only will the surface moisture be on the increase but the moisture through the atmosphere will be rather high and significant for late September. So whatever convection can fire would have the ability of producing some locally heavy rainfall in spots.
Again the timing of all this is still an issue to be figured out, but the potential for some much needed rainfall, yes we’re still in a nasty drought, is increasing as the week moves along.