Storms Moving Through- Severe Chances

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Well the night was loud for a couple of hours and now the late AM is wet as a batch of heavy rain with embedded thunder is moving through the metro as of this typing. The rain is locally heavy in spots but shouldn’t create any flooding concerns as the wave moves through up till about noon or so. Rainfall amounts are up to about 1/2″ per hour in some of the heavier downpours. There are some small areas with even heavier downpours but they don’t last for that long.

All morning, and for that matter yesterday on the blog, I tried to be very succinct in detailing our main threat of severe weather, which to me again seems to be possibly some straight line winds. I know the weather hype machine was in force from various other outlets but my message has been consistent. The main threat of severe weather, still a big IF, will be later today and tonight and that threat will be 50-60 MPH wind gusts in isolated areas. At this point unless something really changes (a lot more instability) I’ll be sticking with that scenario.

There actually may be some thin spots in the clouds early this afternoon on the backside of this wave moving through…here is a look at radar…

If nothing else the rain is certainly welcome and the latest data shows the potential for a solid 1/2″-2″ rainfall across a good part of the area. (NW MO should see less rainfall) The upper level storm moving along I-70 will max out in intensity right on top of KC tomorrow in the AM…this means the rain may linger into tomorrow AM before clouds break in the PM hours.

I don’t really want to rehash everything that I went over from yesterday concerning severe weather, but those thoughts are still valid. To reiterate the threat of tornadoes is VERY small, likewise flooding. There is the threat of some 1″ hail and the threat of isolated 50-60 MPH wind gusts is there as well, again the timing for that is this evening through the 12AM hour. Highest chances still appear to be across SE/SC KS and C OK. There there is a threat of tornadoes as well down there.

So here is a timeline for the rest of the weekend.

Now-8PM: Periods of storms with an occasional lull in the rain. Some brief heavy downpours but storms are moving at 45 MPH so the heaviest rain won’t last that long.

8PM-2AM: Keeping an eye towards SC KS and C/NE OK. Severe weather is likely down there and those storms will weaken somewhat as they move NE towards the region. This is the time frame, especially after 9PM for some stronger wind gusts of 50-60 MPH fort he KC area and southwards

2AM-10AM Sunday: Lingering off/on showers possible…worst storms move off towards the Lakes area and Central MO

Noon-5PM Sunday: Clearing skies, highs near 70°

Joe

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