An Energized Weather Pattern
Very interesting weather map this AM as a surface storm is not far away to start the work week. Despite that though, the threat of rainfall during the first part of the day around the immediate viewing area is tiny and the region is in the warm sector of the storm, as a result of this we are firmly in the warm-humid airmass, keeping temperatures some 10-20° above average.
Our morning low was 66°, this I believe ties a record warm low that was first set back in 1963 and then hit again in 2004. So now this would be the 3rd time we’ve dropped to those warm levels. Tuesday the record warm low is 67° set back in 1963 as well. Something to watch for. Of course the only way it can start that warm in the AM is with a ton of moisture, lots of clouds and decent S winds…and today we have the trifeca. Here is the AM surface map showing the storm nearby. Click on that image to make it larger.
Despite those features nearby, rainfall this AM is well to towards the NE of the area because that’s where the better “lift” in the atmosphere was early this AM thanks to the low level jetstream. This was expected if you read yesterday’s blog. There is also a small but decent little disturbance that I pointed out for you last night on the air in the SW Plains area. You can see it clearly on the satellite loop. Despite this disturbance approaching though rainfall is still going to be tough to come by because the air aloft is so warm. In other words the atmosphere is “capped.” That should prevent much in the way of storms to fire up later today. There may be some activity out there but I’m not overly confident (hence my 20% chance).
Tomorrow and Wednesday look warm and humid for late October.
Our strong cold front will move into the area on Thursday. The model guidance is converging on an early frontal passage. This means that our high on THU may occur at midnight and then as soon as the front moves in temperatures should drop quickly. So in reality it looks like much of THU may only be in the 50s for highs…IF the front doesn’t move through till afternoon…we’ll be back in the 70s for sure!. There may be some rain in the area, but the amounts at this point don’t look overly impressive.
The data this AM is not as bullish on the potential of rainfall later in the week (FRI). There will be a decent little piece of energy coming out of the Rockies however by the time it sweeps into the Plains states, the moisture (below 6-7000 feet) may be too far removed, and aside from some mid level clouds, there may not be enough moisture to get any rainfall. Combined with the colder and drier air moving into the region, the potential of any decent rainfall is not so great. It just looks chilly and dry heading into the weekend.
I continue to be fascinated with the potential back east however as the model guidance (at least some of it) has all sorts of craziness happening thanks to a combination of the system moving through our area later in the week and then combining with either a tropical storm or hurricane (Sandy to be?) trying to organize in the tropics. It would be feature number 1 in the next graphic.
Since Sandy hasn’t even formed yet this is all pure speculation but take a look at what the EURO model does as the northward moving tropical system interacts with the eastward moving trof (that will deliver our cold late week air) in a week. The two are forecasted to merge become one and turn into this weird hybrid tropical system/Nor’easter in the Mid-Atlantic states region. This map is valid NEXT Monday evening @ 7PM (off the EURO model) and granted this is pure speculation on the models part…a LOT will change). Map is for the 500 mb level or about 18K feet up.
So how does this all translate to the surface? Take a look a a forecast map off the EURO again…
This forecasted storm would have it all…flooding rainfall, hurricane force winds (and then some) coastal flooding, potential blizzard conditions on the backside in the colder air, power outages…you name it. Essentially the NE would be shut down for a couple of days IF this were to pan out. In a sense this would be the “Perfect” storm scenario!
Now for perspective. This is just ONE model. While it has been consistent for couple of days with other models offering similar solutions, this may not even happen to the level the model is forecasting or even within 500 miles of where it’s forecasting something to happen like this. Everything may all come together further offshore or not even happen at all. A lot of variables, but it’s impressive to see the look of the model itself. The GFS which yesterday had similar ideas today keeps everything so separated that nothing combines. The Canadian model does however try to do something like the EURO, it’s a little different but it definitely has something going on.
It’ll be interesting to see how it all unfolds. By the way, something that I’m noticing in the last couple of months is the persistence of the -NAO (negative North Atlantic Oscillation). This in the winter months has the potential of delivering cold air through the eastern half of the USA.
Have a great Monday and enjoy the warm air!
Joe
