Strong Cold Front Coming
I’ve talked a lot about the potential storm along the east coast for the last couple of days…so I think today I’ll keep this more simple and just talk about the big change in our weather heading this way for tomorrow.
As you might expect after several days in the 80s, and with near summer time dewpoints well into the 60s with persistent south winds, something is bound to change. After all, we’re in the middle of the fall season and this is the time of transition. Colder airmasses are being born through Canada, the jetstream is more active now than in the summer months and the colder air has more of an opportunity to move southwards into the States. This will again be the case tomorrow. Actually the cold air is located through the N Plains now and continues to seep into the Plains states. Here is the 8AM surface map showing the two airmasses…one warm and humid (on top of us) and another chilly and damp (through NE and the Upper midwest)
The numbers in RED are the temperatures and the numbers in GREEN are the dewpoints. Click on the map above for a larger picture.
The front should move through the area tomorrow AM, from the NW>SE. Temperatures ahead of the front will be near 70°. Behind the front the temperatures will be plunging into the 40s. So tomorrow will be a very changeable day…and when that front comes through, you’ll now it. Regardless IF when you wake up and it’s still warm tomorrow, make sure you are dressed for readings near 50° later in the afternoon. My thoughts are that the temperature will drop about 20-25° in the course of a couple of hours tomorrow morning.
Now about the rain chances. There will be a band of rain/shower near and especially behind the front. While rainfall amounts will not be too heavy, hopefully some areas will see close to 1/4″ of rain. I guess some areas potentially could see 1/2″ IF things worked out nicely. The modelling has never been to great for the amounts of rain. The front IS coming through at a bad time of the day, before a lot of instability can build up. Farther off towards the east, closer to Central MO, there would be the potential for some additional storms as the heat is building up farther east of here.
+++9AM Update+++
For what it’s worth, the latest NAM gives us little to nothing for rainfall. Here is the forecasted rain total through 7PM tomorrow evening. 
After the front sinks southwards tomorrow PM, the rain chances will fade away. Highs on Friday should be in the 50° territory and then we should be in the 50s through the weekend. Some chilly AMs are coming FRI-SUN.
At this point next week should see a moderation in the temperatures, but we’ll need to watch the potential east coast storm for the potential of it sending some shots of cold air our way as it deepens. I’m not overly optimistic about any additional rain coming after tomorrow…so the drought which people seem to be forgetting about, will not improve all that much through next week I think. Should the east coast storm NOT materialize, or perhaps go well out to sea, then that could open the door for some additional systems to move in from the western part of the country.
I can’t resist…here is the 6Z run of the GFDL model…
This is valid at 7AM on the 29th. This would be a devastating storm for the NE part of the country should this happen!
Joe
