Interesting Weather…But For Us?

Posted on: 1:55 pm, November 3, 2012, by , updated on: 02:19pm, November 4, 2012

leaves

Reminder: Set your clocks BACK one hour tonight for the arrival of Central Standard Time (CST) again. The sun will rise @ 6:51 AM and set @ 5:15 PM tomorrow so those late afternoon chores will need to be finished a bit earlier tomorrow. Hey in case your interested here is a history of DST which ends today.

A splendid and typical early November day across the region with mostly sunny skies and light winds in the area. As of the noon hour we are near 50° and before the day is done we should finish in the upper 50s. Quiet weather is again expected tomorrow with some additional cloud cover as a weak disturbance tracks through the region.

A second stronger disturbance will be moving through Monday AM. The energy for this disturbance will be coming out of a rather large, intense storm way up towards the Gulf Of Alaska. You can see it on this satellite image swirling across the Gulf Of Alaska.

Notice all that cloud cover towards the south of the storm from the British Columbia area  through and into the Pacific Ocean. That is strong jet stream winds and embedded waves, one of which will move through the western part of Canada and then dive bomb through the Plains states on Monday. That will be the next big weather feature for the NE part of the country during the middle of the week.

As far as our weather goes, the models are consistent with their thinking, except there are two modes of thinking. One mode (NAM) takes this diving wave just towards the east of the KC area, allowing for periods of sunshine and clouds with no threat of rain nearby on Monday. The GFS and Canadian model bring the core of the wave right on top of us, intensifying as it does so, and creating at least some rain (1/4+) mainly on the MO side. The latest EURO is sort of a combo of things, creating more MO side rain. My forecast of that chance of rain on MON will continue. Temperatures are tricky with this because after the wave moves through, we should see colder air work into the area. Highs on Monday may only be in the 48-53° range depending on the amount of cloud cover. Even IF the rain is farther west, affecting more of the region the amounts with such a fast moving system look to be minor (under 1/4″). This system will do no good for aiding the festering drought. Since I talked about the drought on Wednesday, I really don’t want to go over the details again. Suffice it to say this map (which hasn’t changed that much) helps explain the regional situation better. It’s from the NWS and was released on Thursday.

So this innocent wave moving through our region will end up causing more potential misery back east. It will drop into the SE part of the country and then swing up the coast. With the patter being locked in back east for the past couple of weeks, this means another large storm will rapidly develop along the coastline and strengthen while heading towards the NE part of the country. This though will be a more typical type of storm (unlike Sandy) and will turn into a Nor’easter for that part of the country. Normally not a big deal, but now that Sandy has done what she did, this storm has the potential of being much worse with the coastal areas being so vulnerable to more beach erosion and wave action as well as the trees being weakened and vulnerable to 30-50 MPH winds with the storm. Here is what the EURO is doing by 6AM Thursday. Click on this image to make it larger.

There will be colder air (which is typical) behind this storm to tap into and as a result areas away from the coast should see some snow and maybe for some of the higher elevations a nice shot of 6-12″ snows. There also may be some sleet and ice with this as well. My concern is that by then about 1 million will still be with out power and depending on where they are, this storm will NOT help matters at all and with the strong winds, crews won’t be able to work for another day or two. Of course there would be the issue of additional outages possible with a storm of this potential strength.

Meanwhile back in weather dull-dom (that’s us)…nothing significant is expected next week, except for a slow warming trend that should take us into the end of the week with a return to the 70s likely as early as Thursday and likely on Friday. The storm that I talked about a few days ago is still there for NEXT later NEXT weekend, but at least per the EURO may end up affecting the N Plains more than us (except for the passage of a decent but seasonable November cold front). With a persistent south flow of air, the humidity/dewpoints will be on the increase as well later next week/weekend. So the overnight lows are going to come up as will the wind and the temperatures. This front that eventually moves through will be notable because we’ll be unseasonably warm ahead of it and turning rather cold behind it for a day or two. There will be some very chilly air in Canada for this storm, but the bulk of that real cold air may rotate through the upper Midwest and just give us a glancing blow. A lot though may change with this storm so it will be the next interesting feature to pay attention too…again about 7+ days away at this point.

That’s it for today. I’ll watch the data carefully concerning Monday and maybe tomorrow I’ll get more aggressive with the rain chances..till then enjoy your weekend!

Joe

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