Innocent Storm = Monster Nor’easter

ScreenHunter_05 Nov. 08 08.45

It’s not much here on the ground but aloft this is a very dynamic system that will turn into our Nor’easter that I’ve blogged about quite a bit over the last few days. At the surface you can clearly see the surface low/circulation moving towards the south of the metro. Rainfall amounts have been, as expected, minor to virtually worthless for the metro. I had a few sprinkles and when I woke up at 7:30 this AM my ground was dry. Some have had enough rain to dampen the ground. KCI/Downtown/Sedalia did end up with about 1/10″ while Olathe/Gardner ended up with a Trace. Disappointing for sure but then this is what I expected. Here is the latest surface map showing the storm.

The air behind the storm, while not that cold for early NOV is cool, and this combined with the developing N winds and the cloud cover (mainly the cloud cover) will keep temperatures for most in the 45-50° range for the day. The clouds are extensive as the satellite picture will show.

The clouds go all the way up towards the N Plains states. Eventually tomorrow AM, we should start to see breaks and then at least some sunshine on Tuesday.

I expect to see a rather dramatic warm-up as the week moves along with 70s likely eventually towards FRI or SAT. The record high on FRI is 78° set in 1999 and 77° set in 1964. I don’t think we can get there with this, but it may get close. We may have clouds in the area on Saturday with the gulf moisture moving our way. Anyway, something to watch for.

Our more dramatic change will sweep through the area on Sunday. This will be a strong but seasonable cold front that will mark a 30° drop in temperatures from day to day. Sunday at this point looks chillier, and while the GFS is very bullish with a LOT of rainfall I’m suspect about it’s depiction is way too wet as the front should sweep through and dry things out rather quickly as the colder/drier air moves through the region. We should get some rain, maybe even some thunder but I’m not confident that we get a bunch of rain.

This storm creating today’s KC weather will again turn into the monster Nor’easter. Some of our model data indicates that on the backside of the storm, in the colder air, there will be snow, and perhaps a lot of it from Washington D.C(!) northwards to north of NYC. Here is a graphic from the NWS in NYC showing the set-up for another potentially VERY bad storm.

Notice that bottom left side panel, those are the forecasted wind gusts. With the coastal erosion and wave action combined with some storm surge (not to the degree of Sandy) more coastal flooding is possible in this area. The cold weather before and after the storm is also a major concern with a lack of utilities so there is a big push right now to get folks (especially the elderly) in safe spots with heat.

Power is coming back quick though. Yesterday there were 2.1 million customers without power…that number this AM is about 1.4 million. Again it gets tougher as the crews almost need to go door to door soon and with all the wind expected on WED, a lot of their areal  work will stop for a couple of days. 820K of that number are in NJ and almost 500K are in NY.

There have been some many amazing images of Sandy. This one though on the cover of New York Magazine is one of the best of them all. take a look.

Pretty amazing to see the city like that. Surreal really.

Good day for a book and a hot chocolate!

Joe

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