Winds Of Change

Posted on: 9:33 am, November 7, 2012, by , updated on: 11:03am, November 7, 2012

leaves

I guess that would be an apt title for the political process as well right? I of course will be sticking to the weather application of the title as Mother Nature is going to start stirring the weather pot over the next 5 days with a rapid series of airmass changes that keep us weather junkies pretty happy, just because we have some things to talk about.

This also applies to the NE part of the country as the Nor’easter is still on schedule and to add insult to injury, with the atmosphere colder this time around as opposed to when sandy hit…not we’re talking about the potential of a heavy wet accumulating that may fall as well. As of this writing it’s 37° in Atlantic City and snowing. No accumulations thus far though. During this time of the year, unless it’s pouring snow, it’s tough during the daylight hours to get an accumulation as the combination of warmer ground conditions and heat from the sun keep that potential in check. When the sun goes down though and the air cools off about 3-5°, then that slowly evolves and the snow can stick if it’s coming down hard enough. You may remember the the The Weather Channel decided to take it upon themselves and name these types of storms. So the first name out of the box is Athena. This though hasn’t been the most popular decision in the weather world. The NWS just came out with this directive in a statement to their various offices back east.

TWC HAS NAMED THE NOR'EASTER "ATHENA.."  THE NWS DOES NOT USE NAME 
WINTER STORMS IN OUR PRODUCTS.  PLEASE REFRAIN FROM USING THE TERM 
ATHENA IN ANY OF OUR PRODUCTS.

The storm will be a big wave producer and wind producer. That has once again led to High Wind Warnings for many areas in the NE part of the country and winds that may gust to 50-60 MPH. /along the coastline, storm surges of 2-4 feet are expected as well as waves of 8-12 feet crashing along the redesigned shorelines of Long Island. Airports are going to be a mess with delays and a lot of cancellations are coming again for later today and tomorrow. Don’t be surprised that as it fully matures off the Long Island coast that it develops an “eye-like” feature to it.

Snow should accumulate just inland near Baltimore up to the New England. Philadelphia is under a Winter Storm Warning.for 3-5″ of heavy wet snow. With the trees weakened and some still loaded with leaves, odds are factoring in the winds, this means more power outages are likely for this part of the country.

Meanwhile for us we’ll be watching a developing western storm system. This will be sweeping through the region over the weekend. Ahead of the storm, we’ll warm up nicely (70s) and as a cold front enters the picture on Sunday we’ll have a midnight high early Sunday AM and then see about a 15-25 degree drop in temperatures over the course of a few hours during the morning on Sunday.

The storm in question is off the coast of Canada.

Notice the “lumpiness” of the clouds in the Pacific Ocean. This is a sign of cold air moving over the warmer Pacific Ocean waters. You can track the storm by looking at it’s progress at about 18K feet up (500 mbs)

Notice how it moves into the PAC NW. It then starts splitting up a bit but there is still some nice energy moving into the SW part of the country. As time moves on, colder air at the surface will drop through the Northern Rockies and move into the Plains states. This will move into our area on Sunday. We should get some rain out of this as the gulf moisture moves in and dewpoints will make it to around 60° or so by later Saturday. Here is the forecast surface map off the NAM model for Saturday @ 6PM.

The cold front is off to the west of here while we’re int he warmer and more moist gulf flow of air.

The other thing about the developing changes will be the gusty winds that are heading this way. Winds of 20-30 MPH will be moving into the area tomorrow and Friday, then increase to near 40 MPH on Saturday. Highs should approach 70-75 on Friday and Saturday depending on the clouds.

Once the front hits sometime Sunday AM, we should see a rapid drop in temperatures and some rain. I’m hopeful we can get 1/4-1″ of rainfall out of this but that will depend on the convective development and the speed of the front as it moves through.

That will do it for today. Have a beautiful Wednesday and enjoy the lack of wind for the last day in a while.

Joe

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