35° Cold Front Coming!

clouds

While the NE part of the country digs out from a major early season snowstorm, we continue to have a tough time getting any moisture of significance to fall around these parts. Let’s talk about the NE part of the country first as this storm has, as expected, created more headaches in terms of additional power outages and various other issues. The storm itself is still strong and now located off the of MA.

Winds are still gusting to near 50 MPH in Nantucket as well as Martha’s Vineyard. So an impressive storm for sure. The snow was very impressive as well with some of the highest totals in CT and NJ. Clintonville, CT (near New Haven) had 13.5″, while Freehold, NJ (about 20 mi west of Asbury Park) had 13″. Here are some additional snow totals and some of the stronger wind reports.

This storm set numerous daily records for the most amount of snowfall yesterday as well as numerous records for the heaviest snow so early in the season. NYC had 4.7″ of snow yesterday. What a last 10 days it’s been for that part of the country. Between the 2 storms you wonder if something like this will ever happen again, with such close timing, in our lives!

I meant to post this yesterday, but NOAA came out with this GREAT selection of images, showing the before and after Sandy shots of a few areas. You can easily use the slider pars provided to see the comparison. Take a look at how much of the beach was altered and where the sand has moved on some of these shots. It really is impressive and very sad as well.

OK so with all that said, what about us? We’re now in the process of seeing some warmer air move in. Temperatures this afternoon are in the upper 60s to near 70 and with strong(!) south winds over the next couple of days warmer and eventually more moist air air will be arriving as well. Dewpoints down across the Gulf Coast are near 60 now. It may take about a 24 hours for that to get up here…but it will ahead of a strong cold front due in SUN AM.

The area shaded in blue represents dewpoints of 55° and higher…green is 60° and higher. Here is a look at the NAM model, showing the dewpoints arriving by tomorrow evening. So the air will feel more humid as the day moves along tomorrow and with the winds blowing at 20-30 MPH, through tomorrow night, lows won’t drop off much on SAT AM. As I mentioned earlier in the week, record highs I think are safe, because despite that warm start on Saturday, clouds will keep highs very much in check I think but it will still be close to, if not above 70°.

Then things change. Here is the surface map for 6AM Sunday showing our storng cold front barreling into the region.

Behind this front, lots of cold air will rapidly move into the region. we may be around 65° at midnight and depending on the timing of the front at daybreak on Sunday some will be in the 60s and others will be in the 30s (NW MO). That cold air will rush in during the AM hours on Sunday so temperatures will tumble!

In terms of rainfall, yes there will some, but between the timing of the front (early- so little to no instability) and the best moisture moving off towards the east of here, rainfall may again vary through the region and while areas E and SE of KC should fare better, I’m hoping we could sneak in 1/2″ out of this, although to be honest some of the latest model data isn’t even that optimistic for the KC area. The EURO model paints about 1/2-1.0″ of rainfall. That may be too generous. IF the front could slow down by 6 hours that could happen so we’ll see hoe things look tomorrow.

On the subject of moisture the twitter feed from @NWSKansas City just had this tidbit of information on it. KC needs 1.15″ of rain this year to avoid becoming the driest year on record. Details in image: ow.ly/i/16Jei

We’ll have another opportunity sometime late next week with some energy coming out of the SW part of the country. Then from there, while it’s just one model, the EURO paints a bizarre picture for the last 10 days of the month. The end result would be a slow but steady warm-up with very little moisture. I’m not necessarily in this camp, but it needs to be watched especially with the information posted just above this from the NWS.

Have a great Thursday and get ready for a lot of wind over the next few days!

Joe

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