Players At The Weather Table
See the bottom of the blog for the date of our Winter Forecast.
Several things are in the process of coming together and creating some interesting weather around these parts. What will happen over the weekend is typical of strong cold fronts over the weekend. we dramatically warm up ahead of the front, thanks to south winds, then we turn drastically colder in a period of a few hours behind the front as the colder air rushes through the region.
That will happen, and then some, SUN AM as the front and the attached storm system that I’ve watched since Halloween is going to move through the area. Temperatures will tumble into the 30s as we get closer to lunchtime on Sunday or shortly thereafter.
In terms of rainfall, I’m still hopeful that we can get about 1/2″ out of this with some higher amounts off towards the SE of the KC area. Let’s see how this all plays out, but here is a look at the latest NAM model out this AM.
So this model gives us close to 1″ of rainfall. Most of the rain that we get should fall between 6AM and 3PM on Sunday. Sunday looks to be a miserable day as temperatures are falling and the rain moves through. Add in NW winds of 20-30 MPH and that is miserable. Thank goodness the Chiefs are on the road that day, otherwise Arrowhead would probably have been 3/4 empty.
As far as where the cold air is now, it’s really not that far away. Take a look at the 8AM surface map showing the front.
So the thicker moisture to our south now will start to move in today. It will be with us tomorrow and tomorrow night. With it in place, a few stray showers are possible tomorrow as a few weak waves zip through the area. Not expecting much out of this and as mentioned previously, the winds tomorrow should howl from the S at 25-40 MPH depending on how much cloud cover we have to deal with.
Sometimes, although it’s a lot tougher in November, there can be severe weather associated with this transition. While that’s not likely for the KC area, off to our west tomorrow it will be possible. Here is the SPC forecast for later tomorrow and tomorrow night.
So here is what I expect on Sunday…6AM temperatures are near 60° with the cold front just to our west/NW. By lunch with rain in the region our temps should be in the 30s (wind chills in the 20s) and by late in the afternoon we should be 32-35° with wind chills near 20°
I would expect highs on Monday to be in the 40-45° range and then we’ll start to moderate for most of next week.
OUR WINTER FORECAST WILL AIR ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 20TH DURING THE 9PM NEWSCAST.
Have a great weekend, and get those outdoor things done on Saturday!