Waiting On A Cold Front!

cold

Well now all the details have been hashed out almost, now it’s just waiting time and slowly but surely the bottom will drop out of the temperatures tomorrow AM. Actually the process will be very fast tomorrow as is typical of these strong November cold fronts that blow through the region after a couple of days of prolonged south winds.

As of noon today KCI is at 73° and after briefly hitting 74°, the question is whether or not we can tie (or break) our record of 77° set back in 1964. There are some showers across N MO now but those won’t influence our area. There are a few sprinkles/showers in SE KS moving NE…we still may see something briefly zip through the area. This AM on my way home, I drove through one of the heaviest sun showers I’ve ever seen. The sun was bright and shining and it was just pouring for about 15 seconds. Pretty interesting. There are clouds that are on the increase across SE KS as well and those will be moving this way as the afternoon wears on.

Notice up across NE, there are a LOT of low clouds there that will be moving in tomorrow with the cold air. Speaking of that here is the noon surface map showing the frontal locations.

The timing of the front is between 6AM and 9AM Sunday. We should be in the 60s just before the front arrives then see temperatures drop 20° in about 30-60 minutes and then drop some more heading into the afternoon…probably close to about 35° later in the afternoon.

Now, more importantly…the rainfall situation. If memory serves, the last time we saw a good widespread rain of over 1/2″ was back with the remnants of Isaac in early September. So it’s been about 2 months or so. Our rainfall deficit since April 1st (when the rains stopped and the flash drought started to take seed) is more than 19″ now and we can chip away at that a bit tomorrow if things work out. I’m still hopeful that we can get 1/2″-1″ of rain out of this as the front works through the region.

Here is what I expect for the rest of the weekend. during the evening hours of , storms will fire across S KS and OK. Those will race towards the NE and move into the area sometime between 1-5 AM or so Sunday. As this rain gets going, a strong cold front will be working into Eastern KS and moving our way and arriving between 6-9AM. Temperatures which initially are between 60-65° will drop to near 40° in a matter of hours towards lunch tomorrow. The rain then will shut down sometime after lunch tomorrow as the cold air dominates. Wind chills will be in the 20-25° range tomorrow afternoon.

One thing to watch for is that the NAM is showing a window of about 2 hours (between 1-3PM where IF there is still precip along and west of KC, there may be some wet snowflakes mixed in with the precip. The GFS blows the precip through before the atmosphere is cold enough to support any snowfall. That is something I’ll be watching for later today with additional runs. It might be one of those deals where it’s 36-38° with a few snowflakes out there. Whatever happens wouldn’t last for more than 1-2 hours before the atmosphere starts to dry out…and again this is still a big IF. Here is how the NAM is projecting snow totals in the midsection of the country.

After that the cold air will dominate on Monday with highs near 45° then we moderate from there for the rest of the week. One note…we better do good with the rainfall tomorrow AM because I really don’t see much after that for another 7-10 days or so.

By the way…look at some of the temperatures in RED across Montana as of the Noon hour…single digits is pretty impressive!

Winter Storm Warnings are posted for E MT and most of ND.

Have a great weekend!

Joe

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