Winter Forecast Videos + Cold Air

Posted on: 2:53 pm, November 23, 2012, by , updated on: 07:06pm, November 23, 2012

snow on trees

Well that was a big change. Check out this graphic showing the 24 hour change from yesterday @ 1PM to today @ 1PM…ouch!

Yesterday our official high @ KCI was 67°. Downtown hit 70°. Today the wind chill factors were in the teens this AM…so that is about a 50° change in the “feel” of the air. That’s enough to send everybody back inside on this Black Friday…but somehow I don’t think that happened!

Here is a trace of the temperatures since Noon yesterday showing the warmth and the coldness! Click on these images to make them larger!

So we’ve come a long way, and tonight I’m forecasting lows down to about 20°. While skies are nice and clear now, model data suggests that there will be some cirrus clouds moving through later tonight. The coldest we’ve been so far this season has been 21°. So I think that tonight will be the coldest night of the season.

At least it’s not snowing. This shot of cold air sweeping through the midsection of the country and the Lakes area, has triggered the Lake Effect snows across Northern MI. It’s snowing pretty good now up there as radar from Gaylord, MI (North-Central MI) shows.

Gaylord, MI yesterday set a record high of 63°. So there you go from record heat to snow in one day! Up till yesterday they had only had about 1.3″ of snow…they average 8″ through the 22nd, so they’re in catch-up mode today.

For us, things will be moderating over the weekend as the chilly airmass moves away and milder S/SW winds kick back in tomorrow afternoon. Highs Saturday should be int he upper 40s and on Sunday we should be 55-60°. Sunday though will feature north winds, which initially will not be pulling in chillier air, but in time that will change as a surface storm organizes across Southern MO. This should, if nothing else, increase the clouds somewhat on Monday and keep highs int eh 40s. We should be in the 40s on Tuesday as well. From there we warm up again. I still think another solid run into the 60s is possible as early as next Thursday that should hang through next weekend (12/1-2)

So when is our next decent storm showing up…not for awhile. There are signs that things could get somewhat more active heading into the 1st week of December. The models are both suggestive of a decent storm moving in sometime around the 4th-6th however this storm won’t have any cold air with it, and the air behind it looks more Pacific in nature so even after the storm passes we’ll still trend mild. I’m forecasting temperatures to be above to much above average for the 1st 10 days of December.

So just for the heck of it, and since I rarely do this for a day 10 prog, here is the EURO day 10 forecast valid for the 3rd.

We are forecasted to have split flow with the true arctic air bottled up across the NW Territories. the colors on the map represent temperatures @ around 5000 feet. That yellow shade that encompasses most of the central/Southern Plains states is the 10°C line, or 50°F…that’s pretty darn mild for early December.  There should be a corresponding increase in the dewpoints as well with this type of set up…and the potential (should that forecast be spot on (and we all know that the day 10 progs are perfect…not) there could be an argument for the potential of thunderstorms as well when the whole thing slides through. As usual, far too early to really get into the details of something that may not even exist.

Finally, I know many of you watched our Winter Forecast on Tuesday night…in case you missed it, we did two segments talking about the winter ahead.

Here is part 1…which runs about 7-8 minutes

Here is part 2…which runs about 2-3 minutes.

I’ve got to say, looking at the long range maps today through 10 days…so far so good!

Joe

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