Early December Forecast

ScreenHunter_04 Feb. 07 23.06

Sometimes it seems with my weather blogs, they have a tendency to write themselves…other times it seems like there is really nothing to write about and since I won’t write a blog just for the exercise of doing it, I only write when I have something to say…I have a feeling these next 10 days are going to be tough to write the blog up, because there isn’t going to be a lot to talk about. If there isn’t a lot to talk about in late November and early December, you know that’s not good for winter weather lovers.

On Saturday, if you read the blog, I gave you an idea that things were really going to warm up heading into early December. Yesterday I talked about it on the on @ FOX 4 and today I thought I’d show you the graphics I used to support my forecast for the first 7-10 days of December.

The graphic above represents where I think the jetstream is going to orient itself during the first few days of December. There should be a strong storm system off the coast of NW Canada into the Gulf Of Alaska. This will create a pretty strong onshore flow of air across the west coast of the US and then the flow will turn from the WSW to the ENE across most of the country. This is a VERY mild flow for us and temperatures aloft will be warming up dramatically. Now forecasting what happens at the surface is a little trickier because ill-timed clouds, whether they’re off the low kind (moisture from the Gulf) or of the higher kind (thick cirrus) can’t really be forecasted well from 7-10 days out but you get the drift of where I’m going.

Here is the next part of the animation I created, showing the polar jet that has a lot of arctic air, displaced across the NW territories into the polar region. That HAS to drop farther southwards for us to get any meaningful cold around here to last for more than a day or two.

So what does all this mean for the first 7-10 days of the month?

That’s why for winter weather enthusiasts it’s not good. I mentioned that my golf clubs are still going to be within reach for at least the next couple of weeks. Last winter they got used a LOT during the winter season.

So with all that said, and remembering how warm last winter was…I thought I’d check out how the highs fared for the first 10 days of the month ion December 2011.

12/1: 49° (avg is 45°)
12/2: 43° (45°)
12/3: 53° (44°)
12/4: 38° (44°)
12/5: 28° (43°)
12/6: 28° (43°)
12/7: 40° (42°)
12/8: 39° (42°)
12/9: 35° (42°)
12/10: 43° (41°)

My suspicion is that for most of the 1st 7 days of the month, highs will be in the 50s and 60s. Record highs are between 69-74°. Last December was 4.4° above average for a monthly temperature…we’ll be WELL on our way after the 1st 7-10 days of the month for another above average month. My feeling is that the 2-3rd week of December will be more energetic.

Finally I approach our accumulating snow season as basically DEC 1-March 15th or so. Any snow before that or after that is gravy to me. So basically we have 14 weeks of snowfall chances. My forecast for the 1st week of December shows NO chance of any snow. So 1 out of the 14 weeks (7% of the season) is now off the boards.

Joe

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