Shooting For Record Highs

drought

Another great afternoon in progress as temperatures today should max out just above 60° which isn’t too bad at all for the last day of November. Interesting that here we are, ready to tackle the first few days of December, and I’m talking about the potential of near or record breaking highs in the region. For those that missed out on my previous blog talking about the potential of record highs…the days most threatened are for Sunday and Monday, when the record highs are 70° set back in 1956. Right now I’m forecasting highs of 70° for KCI. I’m somewhat more confident in Sunday’s forecast because I think Sunday will be brighter as opposed to Monday. We may have another low cloud issue on Monday that could keep highs in the 60s. That is something that will be looked at tomorrow and Sunday. The cloud issue on Monday may not be as impressive as tomorrow when a low gray overcast should hold strong. As a matter of fact, you can see that moisture already moving into the southern Plains states on the afternoon visible satellite picture.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/data/satellite/20121130_1945_ICT_vis.jpg

You can see the clouds in Eastern OK, that is the leading edge a more gulf moisture that shows up a bit better when looking at the dewpoints across the Southern Plains region.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s15/ttd/ttd.gif?1354305649759

The dewpoints are in the dashed blue lines…the solid contours are dewpoints of 56° and higher. By the way, the RED lines are the isotherms (lines of equal temperatures).

So over the weekend, thanks to the persistent south winds, that moisture will be drawn northwards tomorrow and then swept eastwards on Sunday. Then the south winds return on Monday drawing that moisture right back into the region before getting swept away from the area later Monday PM associated with a cold front sweeping through the area.

Next week will so somewhat up and down, but essentially all above average through next Thursday. Then later in the week a stronger, but seasonable front will move will sweep into the area and allow somewhat colder air, but nothing unusual for early December to move into the Plains states.

What I STILL don’t see much of, into at least the 12th of the month is a significant precipitation event. I bring that up because the latest drought report came out yesterday and showed a slight expansion of the severe drought across W MO. Here is the map that was posted from the NWS in Pleasant Hill.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/eax/drought/nov282012/DroughtMonitor.png

We are an astounding 19.2+” below average since April 1st @ KCI. The reason why that number is so large, is that KCI got only about 1.5″ of rain from the remains of Isaac in the late summer while other areas near and south of I-70 saw 4-8″ of rain. Gardner is 15.3″ below average and Sedalia is about 11 1/4″ below average, so there is some variation across the area. This next chart shows how the year shapes up compared to the driest years on record for KC.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/eax/drought/nov282012/preciptotals.png

This will not be the driest on record, but it could easily be the 3rd driest year on record going back into the late 1800s. That is still a very impressive feat in the weather books for KC.

Finally, I thought I’d through this out there, the Hurricane season comes to an end today. For 2012 there were an impressive 19 named storms. As a matter of fact this is the 3rd straight year of 19 named storms (there was an “unnamed” storm last year in post analysis) which has never happened in weather record history. The folks from Accu-Weather came up with a real nice graphic illustrating the season.

http://i.imgur.com/vGHVj.jpg?1

I bring up this information because I wouldn’t be shocked if there was some sort of weird December hybrid type storm out in the central Atlantic in the next few days. it’s not unheard of to have December named storms. There have been 16 in the past, including one as recently as 2007 (Olga). Here is the area the TPC is watching.

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/atcf/latestATL.png

The EURO model in particular has been developing the system for the last several days and it’s caught my eye.

That will do it for the day. I’ll get you an update over the weekend, probably on Sunday unless something interesting happens.

Joe

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