A Blizzard-Severe Weather-A Blah KC

Posted on: 1:12 pm, December 8, 2012, by , updated on: 05:01pm, December 8, 2012

cold

I guess I’ll start the with the last item, as even a cold front these days is still not impressive to me in the scheme of usual December cold fronts. Don’t get me wrong, Sunday night and Monday will be cold, but we’re still talking highs on Monday around 30°. Granted that’s some 10° below average and if it would last for a few days, that would be something a little more interesting. Alas though that will not be the case as this cold airmass will be moving out rather quickly and then the above average highs will again flood through the Plains states till another storm later next week brings down another brief shot of cold weather.

As far as today goes, the dense fog that was an issue for areas to the south of downtown KC is still hanging on, and in addition as in some cases lifted to a low overcast. There is some sunshine, but the low level moisture is moving from east to west and the upper level moisture is moving from west to east. Interesting satellite images this afternoon. There are some pockets of sunshine out there but they are few and far between.

So over the next 24 hours a cold front will be moving through. we’ve talked about this for about a week I think so it shouldn’t surprise anyone. Now the air behind the front will be cold but in the scheme of December cold fronts…it really is not that dramatic. If it were near 0° or something, that would catch my attention a little more. Here is the surface map as of the noon hour for the Northern Plains. The temperatures are in RED.

sfc

So the front will move through the area tomorrow AM, but the real cold may lag behind the front by about 6 hours or so. As a result we should have highs in the 40-45° range towards lunch, and then see temperatures drop off through the afternoon and then drop off more tomorrow evening.

The end result of this will be lows in the 10-15° range by Monday AM. Ahead of the front tonight, what moisture is in the lowest part of the atmosphere this afternoon in the form of cloud cover will cool, condense and result in even lower clouds and maybe some drizzle or light showers, perhaps more dense fog as well later tonight. Rainfall amounts don’t look like much, odds favor well under 1/10″…and so it goes.

This cold airmass will start modifying quickly over the bare Midwestern ground and start moving away by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures aloft reflect that nicely @ the 5000′ level.

Notice how the blues/purples start to move away from the region and the greens start to show up again in the Plains states in the lower right graphic. This is valid @ 6AM Wednesday. Actually we’re getting some help here with some downslope warming as well off the higher terrain of the Western Plains region.

So there you go, about a 2 1/2 day shot of chilly weather. Not really that exciting in the scheme of things but when you consider through yesterday we’re running 16°! above average so far through the 1st week of December, it’s a nice jolt back to reality I guess.

After the cold air is swept away from the region, we’ll moderate and odds favor a return to the 50s by Thursday and there is potential for a run towards 60°. So it’s possible for as chilly it will be on Monday, with the potential for warmth on Thursday, the two could actually cancel each other out. Here is a look at the GFS forecast off the GFS for Thursday AM. Notice how the warmth is really moving through the Plains states.

IF we have enough sunshine it could be 60° easy. There will be another storm digging into the western part of the country later in the week and kicking out through the Plains states. At this point, again not overly excited about things because it may come out in various chunks instead of whole. Here is the GFS for next SAT AM.

You can see several pieces of a storm aloft. Over the next 16 days the latest GFS gives us a whooping .26″ of moisture, most connected to that late week storm. The latest EURO is about the same, again connected mostly to the late week storm.

By the way, for you winter lovers out there, the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will be the place to be later today and tomorrow with Blizzard Warnings in effect for parts of the Dakotas.

Here is a look towards the Minot AFB, ND area with a web cam.

Finally down south there is actually a chance of some severe weather tomorrow.

So it goes…all this weather going on but really nothing dramatic for us. It is really tough to break the back of a drought and we continue to see that in this region.
Joe

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