Well it’s been talked about for over a week now…and here it finally comes. A nice shot of some cold air that will take temperatures below average beginning later tonight and lasting through Tuesday AM. As things work around here, it will quickly move out and another nice+ warm-up will be ushered into the region during the middle of the week.
Let’s start with the cold air. The winds earlier switched to the NW, but really that was just simply a wind shift. The true cold front is moving into the NW MO area as I type this and will arrive in the KC area in a couple of more hours. The winds will start to crank from the NW and gust to 20-30 MPH and the temperatures which are in the lower 40s now will be dropping into the 20s over the course of a few hours heading towards sunset. as this process unfolds, wind chill factors will be tanking as well, down into the teens and then eventually into the single digits heading towards Monday AM.
Any threat of additional precipitation looks to be nil with this transition, as a matter of fact, as I talked about yesterday on the air, there actually will be a little sunshine as the air starts mixing and we get not only colder but see drier air work into the region as well. What rainfall we received yesterday evening and overnight only amounted to a few hundredths, if even that much. really just a sad situation for drought relief. There are signs later in the week something a little more substantial could move through.
We’ll warm-up from the cold shot beginning Tuesday night as S/SW winds start to move milder air through the Plains states. This will send our highs soaring WED-FRI. As this process occurs a somewhat stronger storm will be moving through the western part of the country. This was talked about yesterday and we’re revisit this more over the next couple of days. This should be a wet situation as opposed to a white situation in terms of the type of precipitation. How much though is a question…whatever happens should be very fast moving though.
Right now to the north of the region, a nice snowstorm is in progress in MN and parts of the Dakotas, spreading into WI. Brookings, SD has had 10″ and Minneapolis has had close to 5″. A small town called Sacred Heart, in W MN has had over 15″ of snow.
If you remember a couple of weeks ago, I talked about how I’m breaking our winter snow season, essentially down to 14 weeks. From Dec 1 through March 15th or so. This is the period of time that we typically get the vast amount of winter snow in this part of the country. There have been exceptions to this (The October Surprise in 1996) and the biggest snowstorm in our history back in 1912 on 3/23-24=25″). So if we simply look at that number, 14 weeks, and the 1st week of December yielded nothing, and now it really appears that the 2nd week will follow suit, that means that 2/14ths of the winter snow potential is virtually gone or 1/7th of the season. So already 14% of the winter snow potential time is going to be toast around here. If you’re a snowlover, that’s not good news. Not unusual mind you, but coming off the dismal performance of last winter from a snow standpoint, not encouraging.
There are storms out there, after next weekend, another should move into the region around the 16th-18th or so and there are storms lined up behind that as well. Can we get enough moisture and cold air combined to get something noteworthy…we’ll see but I’m not giving up hope for heading towards late December for snowlovers.
That’s about it for today…have a great Sunday and grab those winter coats.