Chances Of A White Christmas For KC

Posted on: 9:42 am, December 10, 2012, by , updated on: 10:05am, December 10, 2012

ScreenHunter_01 Dec. 16 15.09

Another week is here and if you didn’t read my blog yesterday, another week with no snow expected of significance in the region. That means that in my way of measuring our winter snowfall potential, we’re already lost about 14% of our potential. See yesterday’s blog about my reasoning for such a statement.

So here is what is going on this AM. Wind chills are in the single digits, clouds are hanging tough in the area, but are in the process of clearing out across NW MO and this clearing trend will rapidly move our way during the late morning. Here is the latest satellite picture showing the clearing trend spreading towards the SE.

If you watched last night, I fully expected this to happen and mentioned that we’d see more sunshine in the afternoon as opposed to the AM hours.

While it will be a cold day, what’s interesting to me is that this cold airmass moves away so fast. It comes in and then it zips out of the region. Winds tonight will quickly switch towards the southwest and this will be a sign that the coldest part of the airmass will be leaving. From tomorrow through Friday we start going into a warmer airmass, and the warmest day appears to be on Thursday as highs may again surge to near, or even above, 60°.

You can see the warmth heading this way by looking at the temperatures aloft over the next few days off the GFS model. Let’s start with tonight…with the cold air on top of the region. You can see where the coldest air resides, anointed by the purple colors.

Now let’s shift towards WED AM…

Finally let’s shift into Thursday…

There are no changes needed at this point with our late week storm. There will be some energy moving through the region and our rain chances will be on the increase later Friday into Saturday AM. Everything will be flying through the Plains states, so I’m not expecting a whole lot of moisture at this point, but perhaps something in the 1/4-1/2″ range will be doable. Depending on the set-up there will actually be the chance of some thunder as well.

Starting to get some questions about the probability of a White Christmas around these parts, and at this point I’m not particularly excited about said prospects. From a climatological standpoint the folks from NOAA have this graphic out showing the chances on average.

So with that said, here is the 1st indicator from the GFS model, forecasting the snowfall on Christmas that would be on the ground.

ScreenHunter_01 Dec. 10 09.30

Several things, 1) it’s the GFS model which is rarely even in the neighborhood of accurate beyond a week or so. 2) the snow is actually forecast to fall right around Christmas Eve/Day and 3) see #1

Fun to look at I guess. Notice though that we’re barely in the 1″ range as far south as St Joseph, MO. Basically it’s not looking very promising. When you look at the forecast for the days leading up to Christmas…well it get’s less likely.

I’ll try to end on a more positive note…the GFS is predicting the potential for about 1 1/2″ moisture between now and Christmas…we’ll see about that.

Joe

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