Look at the bottom of the blog for a White Christmas update for Kansas City.
So our storm is going to quickly zip in and then zip through the region tomorrow evening through early Saturday. The window for rain will only be from about 6-9PM through 12-3AM Saturday, about 6 hours worth. The storm will get wrapped up fast across the Plains states and as a result will end up sucking in dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere and that dry air aloft will shut down the rainfall rather quickly. The end result of all this will be amounts that should be somewhere in the 1/10″-3/10″ range for most of the area. There is a somewhat higher potential for some rainfall towards the NE of KC.
Here is a look at the storm from about 18K feet or at the 500 mb level. It will be compact but potent little bugger that just will be moving too fast and as a result will have a tough time tapping into a lot of Gulf Moisture.
The map above is valid for 12AM early SAT AM. You can clearly see the storm across the western Plains. Now lets go down to about 10K feet, remember you have to always look at the atmosphere through ALL the levels to get an idea what’s going on. At this level we can get a better idea of how the storm is generating moisture aloft…and you can clearly see, per the modelling that there is going to be a strong, fast moving dry slot, that will be zipping through the area not too long after midnight.
This is why the window of the rain is going to be pretty small overall. IF the storm would slow down, then we could lengthen out the process. What rain (maybe even a few rumbles) that forms to the SW of the region will be flying towards the NE at almost 40-50 MPH…hence another reason why the amounts will be lighter rather than heavier.
By the way, the Drought report came out a couple of days ago…and the hasn’t been too much of a change in the actual numbers. Let’s start over on the KS side.
As far as the MO side goes…no real changes.
Anecdotally…we know things are getting worse. It’s not as “in our face” as it was about 4 months ago, but we’ve certainly not seen any significant change in the dry weather doldrums that we’ve dealt with since 4/1 or so. We’re close to 20″ behind average in that time span for KCI, and while those numbers are higher for the “official” station in KC, it’s still pretty bad everywhere, and I’m not optimistic that it will get better any time soon.
The early AM run of the GFS model gave us 1″ of moisture over the next 16 days, most of it coming from a phantom storm on the 26th (it would be rain on that model run)
As far as what’s beyond this particular storm…really not a lot. It will not really tap into any real Canadian air, so as a result, while temperatures over the weekend will be cooler, especially Sunday, we’re still talking 50s for SAT and 40s for SUN, which are both above average for the middle of December. Through yesterday we are running about 9.5° above average for the month,, and today we may tack on a bit to that since we’re starting out the day some 15° above average.
Next week should be sort of an up and down week, and I still don’t see any strong signals of unusual December cold heading this way…some signs point to a colder Christmas week, but odds continue to favor a dry Christmas week as well. On that note here is a look at the GFS snowfall forecast (on the ground) on Christmas Day…it looks browner and browner for us around these parts.
Click on the image above to make it larger. So with that said, there have been no changes today in the chances of us having a White Christmas.
In all honesty, at this point in time, 1% could be optimistic.
Have a great day and I’ll try and get in another blog tomorrow. By the way, I’m off from work for the next about 10 days or so. I’ll try and blog every so often to keep you up to date but may take the weekend off from blogging. I’ll be on the air again on the 26th.