Our storm looks impressive on the latest water vapor loop this AM. It’s raining in the deserts of the SW, which is almost always a good thing during this time of the year out there and that storm is moving towards the Midwest. Ahead of the storm, a large area of sub-tropical moisture is spreading into the area as I type this. This will keep the sunshine somewhat limited and as a result temperatures for today are going to be well into the 50s as opposed to the 60s.
On the surface, moisture is streaming up through western and central Texas, dewpoints are in the 40s which isn’t the greatest but it’s what we have and it will have to do tonight when rain heads our way.
The thickest moisture, in orange (dewpoints in the 60s) will not make it into the system fast enough to do us much good.
So what do we have working for us, well the system is VERY dynamic…so much so that there should be some sort of line of heavier rains with embedded thunder developing across central KS into OK this evening. This line will then race towards the NNE at close to 50 MPH and zip through here later tonight into early tomorrow AM…then the “dry slot” of the storm will overtake the region and shut down the appreciable rainfall. Here is the latest NAM model suggesting amounts in the area of 1/4″…some may do a bit better, others perhaps a bit worse. Whoever can get a little more rainfall from a convective standpoint can get close to 1/2″ or so.
In the big scheme of things, this rain is really a drop in the proverbial drought bucket. We are close to 20″ below average for rainfall since 4/1 and since we average about 4/10″ of moisture/week during December, whatever we get tonight will give us essentially one week of average moisture in a sea of weeks and months without average moisture. So while beggars can’t be choosey, it’s the best we can do.
The rest of the weekend looks fine, with cooler weather likely on Sunday but at this point there are no real prolonged shots of cold air heading this way for the next 7 days or so..
Here is the latest GFS forecast for snowfall on the ground on Christmas Day…again at this point most of the country will have a brown Christmas.
With the way we’re going down the road, there is no need to change my forecast for the chances of a white Christmas in the KC area.
I’m going to take the weekend off from the blog. So have a great weekend and I’ll write up a new entry on Monday.